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Understanding and predicting population response to anthropogenic disturbance: Current approaches and novel opportunities
  • +17
  • Cassie Speakman,
  • Sarah Bull,
  • Sarah Cuybaynes,
  • Katrina Davis,
  • Sébastien Devillard,
  • John Fryxell,
  • Cara Gallagher,
  • Elizabeth McHuron,
  • Kévan Rastello,
  • Isabel Smallegange,
  • Roberto Salguero-Gomez,
  • Elsa Bonnaud,
  • Christophe Duchamp,
  • Patrick Giraudoux,
  • Simon Lacombe,
  • Courtney Marneweck,
  • Louis Schroll,
  • Adrien Tableau,
  • Sandrine Ruette,
  • Olivier Gimenez
Cassie Speakman
Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité

Corresponding Author:cassie.speakman@outlook.com

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Sarah Bull
University of Oxford
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Sarah Cuybaynes
CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD
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Katrina Davis
University of Oxford
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Sébastien Devillard
Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, LBBE, UMR 5558, CNRS, VAS
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John Fryxell
University of Guelph
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Cara Gallagher
Aarhus University
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Elizabeth McHuron
University of Washington
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Kévan Rastello
University of Victoria
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Isabel Smallegange
Newcastle University
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Roberto Salguero-Gomez
University of Oxford
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Elsa Bonnaud
Université Paris-Saclay
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Christophe Duchamp
French Biodiversity Office
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Patrick Giraudoux
University Marie and Louis Pasteur/CNRS
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Simon Lacombe
CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD
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Courtney Marneweck
Giraffe Conservation Foundation Trust
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Louis Schroll
CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD
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Adrien Tableau
French Biodiversity Office
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Sandrine Ruette
French Biodiversity Office
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Olivier Gimenez
CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD
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Abstract

Effective conservation of biodiversity depends on the successful management of wildlife populations and their habitats. Successful management, in turn, depends on our ability to understand and accurately forecast how populations and communities respond to human-induced changes in their environments. However, quantifying how these stressors impact population dynamics remains challenging. Another significant hurdle at this interface is determining which quantitative approach(es) are most appropriate given data constraints and the intended purpose. Here, we provide a cross-taxa overview of key methodological approaches (e.g., matrix population models) and model elements (e.g., energetics) that are currently used to model the effects of anthropogenic disturbance on wildlife populations. Specifically, we discuss how these modelling approaches differ in their key assumptions, aspects of their structure and complexity, the questions they are best poised to address, and their data requirements. Our hope is to help overcome some of the methodological biases that might persist across taxonomic specialisations, identify new opportunities to address existing modelling challenges, and improve our understanding of the direct and indirect impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. We guide users through the identification of appropriate model configurations for different management purposes, while also suggesting key priorities for model development and integration.