Understanding and predicting population response to anthropogenic
disturbance: Current approaches and novel opportunities
Abstract
Effective conservation of biodiversity depends on the successful
management of wildlife populations and their habitats. Successful
management, in turn, depends on our ability to understand and accurately
forecast how populations and communities respond to human-induced
changes in their environments. However, quantifying how these stressors
impact population dynamics remains challenging. Another significant
hurdle at this interface is determining which quantitative approach(es)
are most appropriate given data constraints and the intended purpose.
Here, we provide a cross-taxa overview of key methodological approaches
(e.g., matrix population models) and model elements (e.g., energetics)
that are currently used to model the effects of anthropogenic
disturbance on wildlife populations. Specifically, we discuss how these
modelling approaches differ in their key assumptions, aspects of their
structure and complexity, the questions they are best poised to address,
and their data requirements. Our hope is to help overcome some of the
methodological biases that might persist across taxonomic
specialisations, identify new opportunities to address existing
modelling challenges, and improve our understanding of the direct and
indirect impacts of anthropogenic disturbance. We guide users through
the identification of appropriate model configurations for different
management purposes, while also suggesting key priorities for model
development and integration.