Rapid urbanization-driven land cover changes have caused habitat degradation and fragmentation, leading to biodiversity loss and disrupted natural processes, resulting in major ecological issues. Ecological networks (ENs) are vital for promoting ecological flow and sustaining ecosystems. However, many studies overlook future climate scenarios and human impacts, weakening the scientific basis for EN planning and construction. This study simulates land use changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in 2050 based on two CMIP6 future climate scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, coupled with the System Dynamics Model and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model. The predicted data from the land use simulation were embedded into the subsequent EN modelling and assessment work, and the key areas for ecological protection and restoration in the BTHUA were identified based on the dynamic changes of the EN assessment indicators. The results show that: (1) Cultivated land is expected to decrease between 2000 and 2050, while built-up land is projected to expand. Woodland is anticipated to grow slowly from 2020 to 2050, whereas grassland is expected to decrease gradually. (2) Between 2000 and 2020, habitat patches fragmented, reducing ecological connectivity. From 2020 to 2050, under SSP2-4.5, fragmentation in the BTHUA is expected to decline, improving connectivity. Under SSP5-8.5, structural connectivity may slightly decrease, while functional connectivity may slightly increase. (3) From 2020 to 2050, core habitat area with higher conservation priority is projected to increase, while corridor length is expected to decrease, mostly in northern and western mountains. Based on changes in ecological node areas, 224 priority conservation grids were identified, mainly in heterogeneous landscapes with notable land use changes. The study provides a scientific basis for EN construction at the scale of urban agglomerations.