Sustainable water supply is crucial for a nation’s economy, particularly in developing countries with a complex energy-food-water nexus such as Pakistan. The Indus River, largely fed by water from snow and glacier melt from the upper Indus Basin, supports millions of lives in Pakistan to fulfill drinking, irrigation, and hydropower needs. This study examines future snow conditions and water supply from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) in the context of water, food and disaster management planning. It uses a multi-model ensemble of future climate projections under two climate change scenarios coupled with a watershed model developed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model’s snow content simulations were validated using improved-MODIS snow cover data. Results of this study indicate that snowfall is projected to decline in the future, particularly during summer season under RCP 8.5 scenario. Future water availability analysis under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2040-2070 and 2071-2100 periods reveals increased spring flows but reduced summer flows, with annual increases of up to 32 %. This study is an important contribution towards the scientific research required for informed and robust policy making for water management, food security and ecosystem conservation in the UIB and downstream regions.