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Civil-Military Relations in the Aftermath of Coups: How Does Coup Failure Affect Counterbalancing in Autocratic Regimes?
  • Artem Kyzym
Artem Kyzym
University of Gothenburg Faculty of Social Science

Corresponding Author:artem.kyzym@gu.se

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Abstract

How do dictators successfully counterbalance (fragment their coercive apparatus) despite the significant risk of military retaliation? Drawing on recent insights that the timing of coup-proofing is essential to its success, I argue that dictators are more likely to increase counter-balancing efforts in the aftermath of failed coups. I test this proposition in a difference-in-differences framework, using novel data on coups and counterbalancing. I find a statistically significant, albeit moderate effect of coup failure. I substantiate my analysis with two illustrative examples from Sierra Leone and Turkey that probe the plausibility of my theorized mechanism. My findings contribute to the growing literature on the effects of failed coups by opening up the discussion on their long-term structural consequences for the dictator’s security apparatus.
14 Dec 2024Submitted to Sage Journal of Conflict Resolution
21 Dec 2024Submission Checks Completed
21 Dec 2024Assigned to Editor
21 Dec 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
21 Feb 2025Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
01 Mar 2025Editorial Decision: Revise Major
14 Jun 20251st Revision Received
15 Jun 2025Submission Checks Completed
15 Jun 2025Assigned to Editor
15 Jun 2025Reviewer(s) Assigned
22 Sep 2025Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
19 Oct 2025Editorial Decision: Accept