Variable importance measures suggest paramount influence of human
economics on alien-species introductions
Abstract
Identifying the most important variables that determine patterns and
processes is one of the main goals in many scientific fields, including
ecological and evolutionary studies. Variable or relative importance is
generally seen as the proportion of the variation in a response variable
explained directly and indirectly by a specific predictor. Although
partial regression coefficients is perhaps the most frequently used,
‘standard’, statistical technique in ecological and evolutionary
studies, beta weights are inadequate indices of variable importance when
predictors are intercorrelated, which tends to be the rule in most
observational data sets. Among other statistical techniques, random
forests and hierarchical partitioning are designed to cope with
collinearity but are still much less used than beta weights to measure
variable importance. Here, we compared random forests and hierarchical
partitioning with linear mixed models to attempt to unravel the
individual and shared variation of environmental, economic, and human
population factors with success of alien species richness in eight
taxonomic groups at a global scale. Results showed that random forests
and hierarchical partitioning generally agreed in ranking variable
importance but showed considerably different conclusions to the standard
statistical approach. Specifically, random forests and hierarchical
partitioning attached more importance to economic and human population
variables in explaining spatial patterns of alien species richness than
did region area and mean air temperature, which were emphasized more by
the standard approach. Beta weights also tended to highlight less
correlated predictors, such as sampling effort and precipitation.
Variable importance in random forests attached more importance to
economic than population variables and to absolute rather than relative
predictors. Variable-importance measures are an underused statistical
technique, particularly compared to the partial regression coefficients,
but can shed light on evaluating the individual and shared variation of
predictors of success of biological invasions and of many other
biological and scientific questions.