This study explores the impact of rapid population growth and urbanization on land use change and carbon stocks in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2020, with predictions for 2030 under three scenarios: natural evolution (NE), farmland protection (FP), and ecological protection (EP). Using the Future Land Use Simulation Model (FLUS) and the In-VEST Model, the analysis reveals that from 2000 to 2020, land use in Hunan was dominated by forests and farmland, with significant changes, including a notable decline in farmland and a 32.03% increase in built-up land. By 2030, under the NE scenario, farmland is expected to continue decreasing, forest areas will expand, and built-up land will diminish. Under the EP scenario, both forest and water areas will increase, while built-up land will rise slightly. The FP scenario predicts a substantial increase in farmland, highlighting its significant impact. The carbon stock analysis shows a decrease of 14.3×10 6 Mg from 2000 to 2020. By 2030, carbon stock is projected to increase by 10.1×10 6 Mg under the NE scenario and by 2.54×10 6 Mg under the EP scenario, due to limited forest and grassland conversion, preserving vegetation carbon pools. Conversely, under the FP scenario, carbon stock is expected to decrease further by 1.2×10 6 Mg, driven by farmland expansion. This study sheds light on the complex dynamics between land use change and carbon storage, offering valuable insights for sustainable development policy formulation. By integrating ecological and socio-economic factors, the findings provide a critical foundation for policymaking aimed at achieving carbon neutrality while supporting sustainable growth in Hunan Province. The results underscore the need to balance socio-economic development with environmental sustainability, particularly in the context of rapid urbanization and its impact on land use and carbon stocks.