This article employs structural realism indicators to predict the likelihood of a great power war in today’s multipolar world. Focusing on key indicators such as changes in the balance of power, alliance systems, military expenditure, and the intensity of competition over strategic resources and regions, the analysis aims to establish a theoretical foundation for assessing the risk of conflict among major powers in Europe and beyond. Drawing on historical precedents and contemporary geopolitical trends, the study evaluates the dynamics of international relations through the structural realist framework. By examining the evolving power structures and strategic behaviors of major states, the article seeks to identify patterns that may indicate an increased risk of great power conflicts. The multifaceted approach integrates both historical insights and current realities, offering a comprehensive perspective on the potential triggers and dynamics of great power wars in the complex landscape of a multipolar world. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the structural factors that may influence the emergence of conflicts among major powers, providing valuable insights for policymakers, scholars, and analysts grappling with global security challenges.

The research for this article was based on secondary sources from Norwegian, US, European, Chinese and Russian academics, think tanks and news media. The author sought to test out offensive realism as a theoretical framework to explain the current great power competition in Europe and developed five OR geopolitical indicators with corresponding hypothesis to assess the likelihood of a future armed conflict in the European Arctic.

The main body of the research analyzed existing documents on the Libya intervention and NATO’s strategic shifts in the post-cold war era. Another focus was the review of literature on the changes in policy and actions of China and Russia after the intervention and to assess to what extent these changes could be attributed to the NATO intervention. Furthermore, I reviewed primary sources of information such as articles, blogs and interviews by/with members of the US foreign policy establishment before, during and after the time of the intervention.