Paeonia emodi (Paeoniaceae) is a perennial herb with a narrow distribution range, and in China, it has only been confirmed near Gyirong, Shigatse, in Tibet. Compared with other congeners, P. emodi bears abundant flowers and attains a taller stature, making it an ideal wild genetic resource for horticultural breeding. Here, integrating the MaxEnt model with a GIS workflow, we assembled 20 candidate environmental variables and, after Spearman correlation and variance inflation factor (VIF) screening, retained six predictors for modeling. Using 64 vetted occurrence records across Eurasia, we projected the potential suitable habitat of P. emodi. The model performed well (area under the ROC curve, AUC = 0.986). Minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), elevation (Elev), and precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) were the key determinants of this species’ distribution. Core suitable areas concentrated in northern Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, Bhutan, and southern Tibet (China). Overall, suitability exhibited a redistribution toward humid highlands rather than a uniform contraction, and the suitability centroid shifted along the Himalayan arc, with regional tendencies toward northern Pakistan and northwestern India. These results provide a theoretical basis for in situ and ex situ conservation of P. emodi, and for its rational introduction and cultivation, with important implications for conserving and utilizing this genetic resource.
