Ionospheric outflow supplies nearly all of the heavy ions observed within the magnetosphere, as well as a significant fraction of the proton density. While much is known about upflow and outflow energization processes, the full global pattern of outflow and its evolution is only known statistically or through numerical modeling. Because of the dominant role of heavy ions in several key physical processes, this unknown nature of the full outflow pattern leads to significant uncertainty in understanding geospace dynamics, especially surrounding storm intervals. That is, global models risk not accurately reproducing the main features of intense space storms because the amount of ionospheric outflow is poorly specified and thus magnetospheric composition and mass loading could be ill-defined. This study defines a potential mission to observe ionospheric outflow from several platforms, allowing for a reasonable and sufficient reconstruction of the full outflow pattern on an orbital cadence. An observing system simulation experiment is conducted, revealing that four well-placed satellites are sufficient for reasonably accurate outflow reconstructions. The science scope of this mission could include the following: reveal the global structure of ionospheric outflow; relate outflow patterns to geomagnetic activity level; and determine the spatial and temporal nature of outflow composition. The science objectives could be focused to be achieved with minimal instrumentation (only a low-energy ion spectrometer to obtain outflow reconstructions) or with a larger scientific scope by including contextual instrumentation. Note that the upcoming Geospace Dynamics Constellation mission will observe upwelling but not ionospheric outflow.

On the bow shock in front of Earth flows current due to the curl of interplanetary magnetic field across the shock. It is uncertain whether the bow shock current closes on the magnetopause, into the ionosphere along magnetic field lines, or both. We present simultaneous observations from MMS, AMPERE, and DMSP during a period of strong $B_y$, weakly negative $B_z$, and small $B_x$. This IMF orientation should lead to current flowing mostly south-north on the shock. AMPERE shows current poleward of the Region 1 currents flowing into the northern polar cap and out of the south, consistent with bow shock current closing along open field lines; a DMSP flyover confirms that this current is poleward of the convection reversal boundary. Additionally, we investigate bow shock current closure for these conditions using an MHD simulation. We conclude that the evidence points to partial closure of bow shock current through the ionosphere.

During intense geomagnetic storms, the magnetopause can move in as far as geosynchronous orbit, leaving the satellites in that orbit out in the magnetosheath. Spacecraft operators turn to numerical models to predict the response of the magnetopause to solar wind conditions, but the predictions of the models are not always accurate. This study investigates four storms with a magnetopause crossing by at least one GOES satellite, using four magnetohydrodynamic models at NASA’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) to simulate the events, and analyzes the results to investigate the reasons for errors in the predictions. Two main reasons can explain most of the erroneous predictions. Firstly, the solar wind input to the simulations often contains features measured near the L1 point that did not eventually arrive at Earth; incorrect predictions during such periods are not the fault of the models. Secondly, while the models do well when the primary driver of magnetopause motion is a variation in the solar wind density, they tend to overpredict or underpredict the Birkeland currents during times of strong negative IMF Bz, leading to poorer prediction capability. Coupling the MHD codes to a ring current model, when such a coupling is available, generally will improve the predictions but will not always entirely correct them. More work is needed to fully characterize the response of each code under strong southward IMF conditions as it relates to prediction of magnetopause location.

The accurate determination of auroral precipitation in global models has remained a daunting and rather inexplicable obstacle. Understanding the calculation and balance of multiple sources that constitute the aurora, and their eventual conversion into ionospheric electrical conductance, is critical for improved prediction of space weather events. In this study, we present a semi-physical global modeling approach that characterizes contributions by four types of precipitation - monoenergetic, broadband, electron and ion diffuse - to ionospheric electrodynamics. The model uses a combination of adiabatic kinetic theory and loss parameters derived from historical energy flux patterns to estimate auroral precipitation from magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) quantities. It then converts them into ionospheric conductance that is used to compute the ionospheric feedback to the magnetosphere. The model has been employed to simulate the April 5 - 7, 2010 “Galaxy15” space weather event. Comparison of auroral fluxes show good agreement with observational datasets like NOAA-DMSP and OVATION Prime. The study shows a dominant contribution by electron diffuse precipitation, accounting for ~74% of the auroral energy flux. However, contributions by monoenergetic and broadband sources dominate during times of active upstream conditions, providing for up to 61% of the total hemispheric power. The study also indicates a dominant role played by broadband precipitation in ionospheric electrodynamics which accounts for ~31% of the Pedersen conductance.