Comparing helicopter-borne surface temperature maps in winter and optical orthomosaics in summer from the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, we find a strong geometric correlation between warm anomalies in winter and melt pond location the following summer. Warm anomalies are attributed to thinner snow and ice on level ice compared to the deformed ice in the surroundings or refrozen leads with only newly formed, thin ice. Warm surface temperature anomalies in January were 0.3 K to 2.5 K warmer on sea ice that later formed melt ponds. A one-dimensional steady-state thermodynamic model shows that the observed surface temperature differences are in line with the observed ice thickness and snow depth. We demonstrate the potential of seasonal prediction of summer melt pond location and coverage from winter surface temperature observations. A threshold-based classification achieves a correct classification for 41% of the melt ponds.