Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large-scale mitigation efforts to limit warming below crucial thresholds are falling short, and all feasible future climate projections, including those that represent ideal emissions reductions, exceed the Paris Agreement’s aspirational <1.5{degree sign}C warming target, at least temporarily. As such, there are a number of proposed climate interventions that aim to deliberately manipulate the environment at large scales to counteract anthropogenic global warming. Yet, there is a high level of uncertainty in how marine ecosystems will respond to these interventions directly as well as how these interventions may impact marine ecosystems’ responses to climate change. Due to the key role the ocean plays in regulating Earth’s climate and ensuring global food security, understanding the effects that these interventions may have on marine ecosystems is crucial. This review provides an overview of proposed intervention methodologies for solar radiation modification and marine carbon dioxide removal and outlines the potential trade-offs and knowledge gaps associated with their impacts on marine ecosystems. Climate interventions have the potential to reduce warming-driven impacts, but could also substantially alter marine food systems, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Impact assessments are thus crucial to quantify trade-offs between plausible intervention scenarios and to identify and discontinue scaling efforts or commercial implementation for those with unacceptable risks.

Pelagic tunicates (salps, pyrosomes) and fishes generate jelly-falls and/or fecal pellets that sink roughly 10 times faster than bulk oceanic detritus, but their impacts on biogeochemical cycles in the ocean interior are poorly understood. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we find that fast-sinking detritus decreased global net primary production and surface export, but increased deep sequestration and transfer efficiency in much of the extratropics and upwelling zones. Fast-sinking detritus generally decreased total suboxic and hypoxic volumes, reducing a “large oxygen minimum zone (OMZ)” bias common in global biogeochemical models. Newly aerobic regions at OMZ edges exhibited reduced transfer efficiencies in contrast with global tendencies. Reductions in water column denitrification resulting from improved OMZs improved simulated nitrate deficits relative to phosphate. The carbon flux to the benthos increased by 11% with fast-sinking detritus from fishes and pelagic tunicates, yet simulated benthic fluxes remained on the lower end of observation-based estimates.

Plankton influences biogeochemical and ecosystem processes, such as sequestration of atmospheric CO2, carbon export to the ocean floor, and the productivity of higher trophic levels. Body size is a proxy for many plankton functional traits, and one means of analyzing its community structure is through the distribution of biovolume across size classes (the size spectrum). To understand how climate forcing can affect plankton communities, we assessed the size spectra in the historical simulations of seven Earth System Models (ESMs) included in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and analyzed projected changes under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). We compared the historical estimates with the Pelagic Size Structure database (PSSdb), a novel size structure dataset from imaging systems. The median slope from models ranged from -1.66 to -1.07, with shallower slopes from this range falling near both the theoretical expectation and PSSdb observations (-1.05), with variations around the median representing differences in the total biovolume distribution across plankton functional groups. Consistent with the observations, most ESMs show steeper slopes and lower biovolume in oligotrophic subtropical gyres compared to productive ocean regions. There was a lack of agreement between models and observations in the size spectra seasonal cycle, possibly stemming from missing model processes and incomplete sampling. Despite these caveats, the size spectra from ESMs presented here, and their evaluation with PSSdb, provides insights on how climate change will affect ecological processes in the plankton, and highlights areas of improvement in model development and imaging data coverage.

Chlorophyll underpins ocean productivity yet simulating chlorophyll across biomes, seasons and depths remains challenging for earth system models. Inconsistencies are often attributed to misrepresentation of the myriad growth and loss processes governing phytoplankton biomass but may also arise from unresolved or misspecified photoacclimation or photoadaptation responses. A series of global ocean ecosystem simulations were enlisted to assess the impacts of alternative photoacclimation and photoadaptation assumptions on simulated chlorophyll, primary productivity and carbon export. Photoacclimation alternatives implicitly modulated the premium placed on light harvesting versus photodamage avoidance and other cellular functions, while photoadaptation experiments probed the impact of adding low- and high-light adapted phytoplankton ecotypes. Alternatives generated large chlorophyll responses that addressed prior model biases in ways that simple changes in growth and grazing could not. Simulations with photoadaptation, surface-skewed photoacclimation in deep mixed layers, and acclimation to light levels over mixing depths consistent with photoacclimation time scales in stratified waters were best able to match observed patterns. While chlorophyll was highly sensitive to alternative photoacclimation assumptions, primary production and carbon export were not because chlorophyll changes under near-saturating light at the ocean's surface yielded only modest phytoplankton growth changes that were counteracted by self-shading at depth. Improved photoacclimation and photoadaption constraints and reduced regional uncertainties in satellite-based ocean color estimates are needed to reduce ambiguities in the drivers of chlorophyll change and their biogeochemical implications.

Phytoplankton stoichiometry modulates the interaction between carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, yet most biogeochemical models represent phytoplankton C:N:P as constants. This simplification has been linked to Earth System Model (ESM) biases and potential misrepresentation of biogeochemical responses to climate change. Here we integrate key elements of the Adaptive Trait Optimization Model (ATOM) for phytoplankton stoichiometry with the Carbon, Ocean Biogeochemistry and Lower Trophics (COBALT) ocean biogeochemical model. Within a series of global ocean-ice-ecosystem retrospective simulations, ATOM-COBALT reproduced observations of particulate organic matter N:P, and compared to static N:P, exhibited reduced phytoplankton P-limitation, enhanced N-fixation, and increased low-latitude export, leading to improved consistency with observations. Two mechanisms together drove these patterns: the growth hypothesis and frugal P-utilization during scarcity. The addition of translation compensation- differential temperature dependencies of photosynthetic relative to biosynthetic processes- led to relatively modest strengthening of N:P variations and biogeochemical responses relative to growth-plus-frugality. Comparison of the multi-mechanism model herein against frugality-only models suggest that both can capture observed N:P patterns and produce qualitatively similar biogeochemical effects. There are, however, quantitative response differences and different responses across N:P mechanisms are expected under climate change- with the growth rate mechanism adding a distinct biogeochemical footprint in highly-productive low-latitude regions. These results suggest that variable phytoplankton N:P makes some biogeochemical processes resilient to environmental changes, and support using dynamic N:P formulations with the ocean biogeochemical component of next generation of ESMs.

Although zooplankton play a substantial role in the biological carbon pump and serve as a crucial link between primary producers and higher trophic level consumers, the skillful representation of zooplankton is not often a focus of ocean biogeochemical models. Systematic evaluations of zooplankton in models could improve their representation, but so far, ocean biogeochemical skill assessment of Earth system model (ESM) ensembles have not included zooplankton. Here we use a recently developed global, observationally-based map of mesozooplankton biomass to assess the skill of mesozooplankton in six CMIP6 ESMs. We also employ a biome-based assessment of the ability of these models to reproduce the observed relationship between mesozooplankton biomass and surface chlorophyll. The combined analysis found that most models were able to reasonably simulate the large regional variations in mesozooplankton biomass at the global scale. Additionally, three of the ESMs simulated a mesozooplankton-chlorophyll relationship within the observational bounds, which we used as an emergent constraint on future mesozooplankton projections. We highlight where differences in model structure and parameters may give rise to varied mesozooplankton distributions under historic and future conditions, and the resultant wide ensemble spread in projected changes in mesozooplankton biomass. Despite differences, the strength of the mesozooplankton-chlorophyll relationships across all models was related to the projected changes in mesozooplankton biomass globally and in regional biomes. These results suggest that improved observations of mesozooplankton and their relationship to chlorophyll will better constrain projections of climate change impacts on these important animals.

The Marine Biogeochemistry Library (MARBL) is a prognostic ocean biogeochemistry model that simulates marine ecosystem dynamics and the coupled cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, iron, silicon, and oxygen. MARBL is a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM); it supports flexible ecosystem configuration of multiple phytoplankton and zooplankton functional types; it is also portable, designed to interface with multiple ocean circulation models. Here, we present scientific documentation of MARBL, describe its configuration in CESM2 experiments included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6), and evaluate its performance against a number of observational datasets. The model simulates an air-sea CO2 flux and many aspects of the carbon cycle in good agreement with observations. However, the simulated integrated uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is weak, which we link to poor thermocline ventilation, a feature evident in simulated chlorofluorocarbon distributions. This also contributes to larger-than-observed oxygen minimum zones. Moreover, radiocarbon distributions show that the simulated circulation in the deep North Pacific is extremely sluggish, yielding extensive oxygen depletion and nutrient trapping at depth. Surface macronutrient biases are generally positive at low latitudes and negative at high latitudes. CESM2 simulates globally-integrated net primary production (NPP) of 48 Pg C yr-1 and particulate export flux at 100 m of 7.1 Pg C yr-1. The impacts of climate change include an increase in globally-integrated NPP, but substantial declines in the North Atlantic. Particulate export is projected to decline globally, attributable to decreasing export efficiency associated with changes in phytoplankton community composition.