Estimation of the ionospheric conductance is a crucial step in coupling the magnetosphere & ionosphere (MI). Since the high-latitude ionosphere closes magnetospheric currents, conductance in this region is pivotal to examine & predict MI coupling dynamics, especially during extreme events. In spite of its importance, only recently have impacts of key magnetospheric & ionospheric contributors affecting auroral conductance (e.g., particle distribution, ring current, anomalous heating, etc.) been explored using global models. Addressing these uncertainties require new capabilities in global magnetosphere - ionosphere - thermosphere models, in order to self-consistently obtain the multi-scale, dynamic sources of conductance. This work presents the new MAGNetosphere - Ionosphere - Thermosphere (MAGNIT) auroral conductance model, which delivers the requisite capabilities to fully explore the sources of conductance & their impacts. MAGNIT has been integrated into the Space Weather Modeling Framework to couple dynamically with the BATSRUS magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the ring current, the Ridley Ionosphere Model (RIM) & the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM). This new model is used to address the precise impact of diverse conductance contributors during geomagnetic events. First, the coupled MHD-RIM-MAGNIT model is used to establish diffuse & discrete precipitation using kinetic theory. The key innovation is to include the capability of using distinct particle distribution functions (PDF) in a global model: in this study, we explore precipitation fluxes estimated using isotropic Maxwellian & Kappa PDFs. RCM is then included to investigate the effect of the ring current. Precipitating flux computed on closed field lines by RCM is compared against MAGNIT results, to show that expected results are alike. Lastly, GITM is coupled to study the impact of the ionosphere thermosphere system. Using the MAGNIT model, aforementioned conductance sources are progressively applied in idealized simulations & compared against the OVATION Prime Model. Finally, data-model comparisons against SSUSI, AMPERE & SuperMAG measurements during the March 17, 2013 Storm are shown. Results show remarkable progress of conductance modeling & MI coupling layouts in global models.

A number of interdependent conditions and processes contribute to ionospheric-origin energetic ion outflows. Due to these interdependences and the associated observational challenges, energetic ion outflows remain a poorly understood facet of atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling. Here we demonstrate the relationship between east-west magnetic field fluctuations ($\Delta B_{\textrm{EW}}$) and energetic outflows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere transition region. We use dayside cusp-region FAST satellite observations made at apogee ($\sim$4200-km altitude) near fall equinox and solstices in both hemispheres to derive statistical relationships between ion upflow and ($\Delta B_{\textrm{EW}}$) spectral power as a function of spacecraft-frame frequency bands between 0 and 4 Hz. Identification of ionospheric-origin energetic ion upflows is automated, and the spectral power $P_{EW}$ in each frequency band is obtained via integration of $\Delta B_{\textrm{EW}}$ power spectral density. Derived relationships are of the form $J_{\parallel,i} = J_{0,i} P_{EW}^\gamma$ for upward ion flux $J_{\parallel,i}$ at 130-km altitude. The highest correlation coefficients are obtained for spacecraft-frame frequencies $\sim$0.1–0.5 Hz. Summer solstice and fall equinox observations yield power law indices $\gamma \simeq$ 0.9–1.3 and correlation coefficients $r \geq 0.92$, while winter solstice observations yield $\gamma \simeq$ 0.4–0.8 with $r \gtrsim 0.8$. Mass spectrometer observations reveal that the oxygen/hydrogen ion composition ratio near summer solstice is much greater than the corresponding ratio near winter. These results thus reinforce the importance of ion composition in any outflow model. If observed $\Delta B_{\textrm{EW}}$ variations are purely spatial and not temporal, we show that spacecraft-frame frequencies $\sim$0.1–0.5 Hz correspond to perpendicular spatial scales of several to tens of kilometers.

We investigate sharp changes in magnetic field that can produce Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) which damage pipelines and power grids. We use one-minute cadence SuperMAG observations to find the occurrence distribution of magnetic field “spikes”. Recent studies have determined recurrence statistics for extreme events and charted the local time distribution of spikes; however, their relation to solar activity and conditions in the solar wind is poorly understood. We study spike occurrence during solar cycles 23 and 24, roughly 1995 to 2020. We find three local time hotspots in occurrence: the pre-midnight region associated with substorm onsets, the dawn sector associated with omega band activity, and the pre-noon sector associated with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability occurring at the magnetopause. Magnetic field perturbations are mainly North-South for substorms and KHI, and East-West for omega bands. Substorm spikes occur at all phases of the solar cycle, but maximise in the declining phase. Omega-band and KHI spikes are confined to solar maximum and the declining phase. Substorm spikes occur during moderate solar wind driving, omega band spikes during strong driving, and KHI spikes during quiet conditions but with high solar wind speed. We show that the shapes of these distributions do not depend on the magnitude of the spikes, so it appears that our results can be extrapolated to extreme events.

The magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere (MIT) act as a coherently integrated system (geospace), driven in part by solar influences and characterized by variability and complexity. Among the most important and yet uncertain aspects of the geospace system is energy and momentum coupling between regions, which is, in part, accomplished by the transfer of charged particles from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere in a process known as particle precipitation, and in the opposite direction by ion outflow. Both processes are inherently multiscale and manifest the variabilities and complexities of the geospace system. Despite the importance of the transfer of particles, existing models are increasingly ill-equipped to provide the specification necessary for the growing demand for geospace now- and forecasts. Due to recent trends in the availability of data, we now face an exciting opportunity to progress particle transfer in geospace through the intersection of traditional approaches and state-of-the-art data-driven sciences. We reveal novel particle transfer models utilizing machine learning (ML), present results from the models, and provide an evaluation of their capabilities including comparisons with observations and the current ’state-of-the-art’ models (e.g., OVATION Prime for particle precipitation and the Gamera-Ionosphere Polar Wind Model for ion outflow). We detail the data wrangling required to utilize the available geospace observations to make progress on the long-standing challenge of particle transfer and place specific emphasis on the discovery possible when ML models are appropriate and robustly interrogated in the context of physical understanding. Our presentation helps illustrate the trends in the application of data science in space science.

Rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with nighttime magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5-10 min duration can induce geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs) that can harm technological systems. Here we present superposed epoch analyses of large nighttime MPEs (|dB/dt| ≥ 6 nT/s) observed during 2015 and 2017 at five stations in Arctic Canada ranging from 64.7° to 75.2° in corrected geomagnetic latitude (MLAT) as functions of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), solar wind dynamic pressure, density, and velocity, and the SML, SMU, and SYM/H geomagnetic activity indices. Analyses were produced for premidnight and postmidnight events and for three ranges of time after the most recent substorm onset: A) 0-30 min, B) 30-60 min, and C) >60 min. Of the solar wind and IMF parameters studied, only the IMF Bz component showed any consistent temporal variations prior to MPEs: a 1-2 hour wide 1-3 nT negative minimum at all stations beginning ~30 to 80 min before premidnight MPEs, and minima that were less consistent but often deeper before postmidnight MPEs. Median, 25th, and 75th percentile SuperMAG auroral indices SML (SMU) showed drops (rises) before pre- and post-midnight type A MPEs, but most of the MPEs in categories B and C did not coincide with large-scale peaks in ionospheric electrojets. Median SYM/H indices were flat near -30 nT for premidnight events and showed no consistent temporal association with any MPE events. More disturbed values of IMF Bz, Psw, Nsw, SML, SMU, and SYM/H appeared postmidnight than premidnight.

The rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with nighttime magnetic perturbations with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5-10 min periods can induce bursts of geomagnetically-induced currents that can harm technological systems. Recent studies of these events in eastern Arctic Canada, based on data from four ground magnetometer arrays and augmented by observations from auroral imagers and high-altitude spacecraft in the nightside magnetosphere, showed them to be highly localized, with largest |dB/dt| values within a ~275 km half-maximum radius that was associated with a region of shear between upward and downward field-aligned currents, and usually but not always associated with substorms. In this study we look in more detail at the field-aligned currents associated with these events using AMPERE data, and compare the context and characteristics of events not associated with substorms (occurring from 60 min to over two days after the most recent substorm onset) to those occurring within 30 min of onset. Preliminary results of this comparison, based on events with |dB/dt|≥ 6 nT/s observed during 2015 and 2017 at Repulse Bay (75.2° CGMLAT), showed that the SYM/H distributions for both categories of events were similar, with 85% between -40 and 10 nT, and the SME values during non-substorm events coincided with the lower half of the range of SME values for events during substorms (200 – 700 nT). Dipolarizations of ≥ 20 nT amplitude at GOES 13 occurred within 45 minutes prior to 73% of the substorm events but only 29% of the non-substorm events. These observations suggest that predictions of GICs cannot focus solely on the occurrence of intense substorms.

Ground-based indices, such as the Dst, ap and AE, have been used for decades to describe the interplay of the terrestrial magnetosphere with the solar wind and provide quantifiable indications of the state of geomagnetic activity in general. These indices have been traditionally derived from ground-based observations from magnetometer stations all around the Earth. In the last 7 years though, the highly successful satellite mission Swarm has provided the scientific community with an abundance of high quality magnetic measurements at Low Earth Orbit (LEO), which can be used to produce the space-based counterparts of these indices, such the Swarm-Dst, Swarm-ap and Swarm-AE indices. In this work, we present the first results from this endeavour, with comparisons against traditionally used parameters. We postulate on the possible usefulness of these Swarm-based products for a more accurate monitoring of the dynamics of the magnetosphere and thus, for providing a better diagnosis of space weather conditions.

We examine the average evolution of precipitation-induced height-integrated conductances, along with field-aligned currents, in the nightside sector of the polar cap over the course of a substorm. Conductances are estimated from the average energy flux and mean energies derived from auroral emission data. Data are binned using a superposed epoch analysis on a normalised time grid based on the time between onset and recovery phase ($\delta$t) of each contributing substorm. We also examine conductances using a fixed time binning of width 0.25 hr. We split the data set by magnetic latitude of onset. We find that the highest conductances are observed for substorms with onsets that occur between 63 and 65 degrees magnetic latitude, peaking at around 11 mho (Hall) and 4.8 mho (Pedersen). Substorms with onsets at higher magnetic latitudes show lower conductances and less variability. Changes in conductance over the course of a substorm appear primarily driven by changes (about 40% at onset) in the average energy flux, rather than the average energy of the precipitation. Average energies increase after onset slower than energy flux, later these energies decrease slowly for the lowest latitude onsets. No clear expansion of the main region 1 and region 2 field-aligned currents is observed. However, we do see an ordering of the current magnitudes with magnetic latitude of onset, particularly for region 1 downwards FAC in the morning sector. Peak current magnitudes occur slightly after or before the start of the recovery phase for the normalised and fixed-time grids.

Geomagnetically induced currents or GICs are signatures of a rapidly time-varying magnetic field (dB/dt) and occur mainly during substorms and storms. When, where and why exactly GICs may occur, is still vague. Thus, we investigated storms for the last 40 years (from 1980 with a storm-list created by W.T. Walach) and analyzed the negative and positive dB/dt spikes (threshold of 500 nT/min) in the north and east component using a worldwide coverage (SuperMAG). Our analysis confirmed the existence of two dB/dt spikes “hotspots” located in the pre-midnight and in the morning MLT sector, independently of the geographic location of the stations. The associated physical ionospheric phenomena are most probably substorm current wedge (SCW) onsets and westward travelling surges (WTS) in the evening sector, and wave- or vortex-like current flows in Omega bands in the morning sector. Additionally, we observed a spatio-temporal evolution of the negative northern dB/dt spikes. The spikes initially occur in the pre-midnight sector, and then develop in time towards the morning sector. This spatio-temporal sequence is correlated with bursts in the AE index, and can be repeated several times throughout a storm. Finally, we investigated the intensity (Dst and AE) of the storms compared to the number of dB/dt spikes, but we did not find any correlation. This result implies that moderate storm with many spikes can be as (or more) dangerous for ground-based infrastructures than a major storm with fewer dB/dt spikes. Our findings may help to improve the GICs forecast to accurately predict dB/dt spikes.

The Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) and its effects relating to the transfer of energy and mass from the solar wind into the magnetosphere remain an important focus of magnetospheric physics. One such effect is the generation of Pc4-Pc5 ultra low frequency (ULF) waves (periods of 45-600 s). On 3 July 2007 at $\sim$ 0500 magnetic local time (MLT) the Cluster space mission encountered Pc4 frequency Kelvin-Helmholtz waves (KHWs) at the magnetopause with signatures of persistent vortices. Such signatures included bipolar fluctuations of the magnetic field normal component associated with a total pressure increase and rapid change in density at the vortex edges, oscillations of magnetosheath and magnetospheric plasma populations, wave frequencies within the expected range of the fastest growing KH mode, and magnetopause conditions favorable to the onset of the KHI. The event occurred during a period of southward polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field. Most of the KHI vortices were associated with reconnection indicated by the Walén relation, the presence of deHoffman-Teller frames and field-aligned ion beams. Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the event also resulted in KHWs at the magnetopause. The observed KHWs associated with reconnection coincided with recorded ULF waves at the ground whose properties suggest that they were driven by the KHWs. Such properties were the location of Cluster’s magnetic foot point, the Pc4 frequency, and the solar wind conditions.