The Mansurov Effect is related to the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and its ability to modulate the global electric circuit, which is further hypothesized to impact the polar troposphere through cloud generation processes. In this paper we investigate the connection between IMF By-component and polar surface pressure by using daily ERA5 reanalysis for geopotential height since 1980. Previous studies have shown to produce a significant 27-day cyclic response during solar cycle 23. However, when appropriate statistical tests are applied, the correlation is not significant at the 95\% level. Our results also show that data from three other solar cycles, which have not been investigated before, produce similar cyclic responses as during solar cycle 23, but with seemingly random offset in the timing of the signal. We examine the origin of the cyclic pattern occurring in the super epoch/lead lag regression methods commonly used to support the Mansurov hypothesis in all recent papers, as well as other phenomena in this community. By generating random normally distributed noise with different levels of temporal autocorrelation, and using the real IMF By-index as forcing, we show that the methods applied to support the Mansurov hypothesis up to now, are highly susceptible, as cyclic patterns always occurs as artefacts of the methods. This, in addition to the lack of significance, suggests that there is no adequate evidence in support of the Mansurov Effect.

The magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere (MIT) act as a coherently integrated system (geospace), driven in part by solar influences and characterized by variability and complexity. Among the most important and yet uncertain aspects of the geospace system is energy and momentum coupling between regions, which is, in part, accomplished by the transfer of charged particles from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere in a process known as particle precipitation, and in the opposite direction by ion outflow. Both processes are inherently multiscale and manifest the variabilities and complexities of the geospace system. Despite the importance of the transfer of particles, existing models are increasingly ill-equipped to provide the specification necessary for the growing demand for geospace now- and forecasts. Due to recent trends in the availability of data, we now face an exciting opportunity to progress particle transfer in geospace through the intersection of traditional approaches and state-of-the-art data-driven sciences. We reveal novel particle transfer models utilizing machine learning (ML), present results from the models, and provide an evaluation of their capabilities including comparisons with observations and the current ’state-of-the-art’ models (e.g., OVATION Prime for particle precipitation and the Gamera-Ionosphere Polar Wind Model for ion outflow). We detail the data wrangling required to utilize the available geospace observations to make progress on the long-standing challenge of particle transfer and place specific emphasis on the discovery possible when ML models are appropriate and robustly interrogated in the context of physical understanding. Our presentation helps illustrate the trends in the application of data science in space science.

Substorm onset location varies over a range of magnetic local times (MLTs) and magnetic latitudes (MLats). Different studies have shown that about 5${\%}$ of the variation in onset MLT can be explained by variations in interplanetary magnetic field orientation and seasonal variations. Both parameters introduce an azimuthal component to the magnetic field in the magnetosphere such that the projection of the onset MLT in the ionosphere is shifted. Recent studies have suggested that gradients in the ionospheric Hall conductance lead to a duskward shift of the magnetotail dynamics, which could also influence the location of substorm onset. In this paper, we quantify the dependence of the spatial variation of the onset location on the geomagnetic activity level prior to onset. We find that the dependence of onset location on prior conditions is as strong as the dependence on IMF By.

Lobe reconnection is usually thought to play an important role in geospace dynamics only when the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is mainly northward. This is because the most common and unambiguous signature of lobe reconnection is the strong sunward convection in the polar cap ionosphere observed during these conditions. During more typical conditions, when the IMF is mainly oriented in a dawn-dusk direction, plasma flows initiated by dayside and lobe reconnection both map to high latitude ionospheric locations in close proximity to each other on the dayside. This makes the distinction of the source of the observed dayside polar cap convection ambiguous, as the flow magnitude and direction are similar from the two topologically different source regions. We here overcome this challenge by normalizing the ionospheric convection observed by the Super Dual Aurora Radar Network (SuperDARN) to the polar cap boundary, inferred from simultaneous observations from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). This new method enable us to separate and quantify the relative contribution of both lobe reconnection and dayside/nightside (Dungey cycle) reconnection during periods of dominating IMF By. Our main findings are twofold. First, the lobe reconnection rate can typically account for 20% of the Dungey cycle flux transport during local summer when IMF By is dominating and IMF Bz > 0. Second, the dayside convection relative to the open/closed boundary is vastly different in local summer versus local winter, as defined by the dipole tilt angle.

Auroral whistler mode radio emissions called saucers are of fundamental interest because they require an unusually stationary emission process in the dynamic auroral environment, and it is a mystery how that can happen in this or similar conditions elsewhere in geospace. The Cusp Alfven and Plasma Electrodynamics Rocket (CAPER-2), launched into the polar cusp and obtained the first rocket measurements of a large-scale, multiple-armed dayside saucers, similar to those recently observed by the the DEMETER satellite, with the addition of in situ particle measurements and simultaneous conjugate ground-based measurements. For 300 s prior to cusp entry, CAPER-2 detected ~15 truncated saucer arms lasting 5–50 s. Directional analysis using waveforms, combined with ground-based data, suggests that these originate within the cusp. Ray-tracing analysis indicates source altitudes ~2500 km. On-board particle instruments show dispersed electron bursts in the cusp, presumed Alfvenically accelerated, corresponding to approximately the same source heights as the saucers.

We present the implementation of an improved technique to coherently model the high-latitude ionospheric equivalent current. By using a favourable and fixed selection of 20 ground magnetometers in Fennoscandia, we present a method based on Spherical Elementary Current Systems (SECS) to model the currents coherently during 2000–2020. Due to the north-south extent of the ground stations used, we focus on the model output along the 105◦ magnetic meridian. In addition to the fixed data locations and SECS analysis grid, our improvements involve taking into account a priori knowledge of the large-scale current systems to improve the robustness of solving the underdetermined inverse problem. We account for contributions from ground induced currents assuming so-called mirror currents. An advantage of this data set over existing empirical models of ionospheric currents is the 1-min output resolution. High temporal resolution enables investigation of temporal changes in the magnetic field. We present an analysis of statistical properties of where (in magnetic latitude and local time) and at what rate (∂Br /∂t) the radial magnetic field component fluctuates. We show that ∂Br /∂t, which is equivalent to the radial component of the curl of the induced electric field, is dependent on latitude, local time, and solar cycle. Other applications of the presented data set are also highlighted, including investigations of how Ultra Low Frequency oscillations in ground magnetic perturbations vary in space and time.

An accurate description of the state of the ionosphere is crucial for understanding the physics of Earth’s coupling to space, including many potentially hazardous space weather phenomena. To support this effort, ground networks of magnetometer stations, optical instruments, and radars have been deployed. However, the spatial coverage of such networks is naturally restricted by the distribution of land mass and access to necessary infrastructure. We present a new technique for local mapping of polar ionospheric electrodynamics, for use in regions with high data density, such as Fennoscandia and North America. The technique is based on spherical elementary current systems (SECS), which were originally developed to map ionospheric currents. We expand their use by linking magnetic field perturbations in space and on ground, convection measurements from space and ground, and conductance measurements, via the ionospheric Ohm’s law. The result is a technique that is similar to the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE) technique, but tailored for regional analyses of arbitrary spatial extent and resolution. We demonstrate our technique on synthetic data, and with real data from three different regions. We also discuss limitations of the technique, and potential areas for improvement.