The increasing spread of marine non-indigenous species (NIS) due to the growth in global shipping traffic is causing widespread concern for the ecological and economic impacts of marine bioinvasions. Risk management authorities need tools to identify pathways and source regions of priority concern in order to better target efforts for preventing NIS introduction. The probability of a successful NIS introduction is affected by the probability that a marine species entrained in a transport vector will survive the voyage between origin and destination locations, and establish an independently reproducing population at the destination. Three important risk factors are voyage duration, range of environmental conditions encountered during transit, and environmental similarity between origin and destination. In this study, we aimed for a globally comprehensive approach of assembling quantifications of source-destination risk factors from every potential origin to every potential destination. To derive estimates of voyage-related marine biosecurity risk, we used computer-simulated vessel paths between pairs of ecoprovinces in the Marine Ecoregions Of the World biogeographic classification system. We used the physical length of each path to calculate voyage duration risk, and the cross-latitudinal extent of the path to calculate voyage path risk. Environmental similarity risk was based on comparing annual average sea surface temperature and salinity within each ecoprovince to those of other ecoprovinces. We derived three separate sets of risk quantifications, one each for voyage duration, voyage path, and environmental similarity. Our quantifications can be applied to studies that require source-destination risk estimates. They can be used separately or combined, depending on the importance of the types of source-destination risks that might be relevant to particular scientific or risk management questions or applications.

Evolutionary divergence and speciation often occur at a slower rate in the marine realm due to the higher potential for long-distance reproductive interaction through larval dispersal. One common evolutionary pattern in the Indo-Pacific, is divergence of populations and species at the peripheries of widely-distributed organisms. However, the evolutionary and demographic histories of such divergence are yet to be well understood. Here we address these issues by coupling genome-wide SNP data with mitochondrial DNA sequences to test the patterns of genetic divergence and possible secondary contact among geographically distant populations of the highly valuable spiny lobster Panulirus homarus species complex, distributed widely through the Indo-Pacific, from South Africa to the Marquesas Islands. After stringent filtering, 2020 SNPs were used for population genetic and demographic analyses, revealing strong regional structure (FST = 0.148, P<0001), superficially in accordance with previous analyses. However, detailed demographic analyses supported a much more complex evolutionary history of these populations, including a hybrid origin of a North-West Indian Ocean (NWIO) population, which has previously been discriminated morphologically, but not genetically. The best-supported demographic models suggested that the current genetic relationships among populations were due to a complex series of past divergences followed by asymmetric migration in more recent times. Overall, this study suggests that alternating periods of marine divergence and gene flow have driven the current genetic patterns observed in this lobster and may help explain the observed wider patterns of marine species diversity in the Indo-Pacific.