Symptom-based case definitions for COVID-19: time and geographical
variations for detection at hospital admission among 260,000 patients
Abstract
Introduction: Case definitions are used to guide clinical practice,
surveillance, and research protocols. However, how they identify
COVID-19-hospitalised patients is not fully understood. We analysed the
proportion of hospitalised patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19,
in the ISARIC prospective cohort study database, meeting widely used
case definitions. Methods: Patients were assessed using the CDC, ECDC,
WHO, and UKHSA case definitions by age, region, and time. Case fatality
ratios (CFR) and symptoms of those who did and who did not meet the case
definitions were evaluated. Patients with incomplete data and
non-laboratory-confirmed test-result were excluded. Results: 263,218 of
the patients (42%) in the ISARIC database were included. Most patients
(90.4%) were from Europe and Central Asia. The proportions of patients
meeting the case definitions were 56.8% (WHO), 74.4% (UKHSA), 81.6%
(ECDC), and 82.3% (CDC). For each case definition, patients at the
extremes of age distribution met the criteria less frequently than those
aged 30 to 70 years; geographical and time variations were also
observed. Estimated CFRs were similar for the patients that met the case
definitions. However, when more patients did not meet the case
definition, the CFR increased. Conclusions: The performance of case
definitions might be different in different regions and may change over
time. Similarly concerning is the fact that older patients often did not
meet case definitions. While epidemiologists must balance their
analytics with field applicability, ongoing revision of case definitions
is necessary to improve patient care through early diagnosis and limit
potential nosocomial spread.