Abstract
Bayesian inference is a tool for treating uncertainty, combining data
and prior information from multiple sources and formats into updateable
models, often of considerable complexity. Attention is increasingly
being paid to the use of Bayesian inference in the study of
host-pathogen systems, in which complex networks of between-individual
interactions operate across a hierarchy of ecological strata. Despite
growing interest, the adoption of hierarchical systems-models by
ecologists remains rudimentary. Bayesian inference has been applied to
wildlife disease networks at a population level, and to epidemiological
diagnostic regimes at an individual level, but there exist very few
attempts to integrate models and data that link individual-, group-,
population-, landscape- and assemblage-levels of wildlife disease
systems. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian techniques at an individual
level has been limited, yet this is vital for uncovering the fine-scale
interactions and latent variables typical of disease networks. This
review explores the use of Bayesian hierarchical models in the study of
host-pathogen systems, identifying the future research required to
achieve the desired “whole-system” approach. We argue that the
complexities and uncertainties underlying disease processes are best
described within a Bayesian framework, contending that although the
infrastructure to craft complex Bayesian hierarchical models exists, the
actual application of these methods is limited within wildlife disease
research.