Jacqueline Taylor

and 2 more

Harmful algal blooms (HABs), in particular those consisting of the cyanobacteria \textit{Microcystis}, are becoming increasingly more common across the globe. Despite the growing body of evidence that suggests vertical heterogeneity of \textit{Microcystis} can be a precursor to HAB formation, the abiotic drivers of vertical distribution of \textit{Microcystis} are poorly understood in the field environment. The prediction of subsurface cyanobacteria is also pertinent because subsurface concentrations are not easily recognizable to the public or lake system managers, creating an unnoticed safety hazard. High-frequency temporal and vertical data were collected from an Eulerian research station anchored in a stratified and eutrophic lake for five months. Data show that the magnitude of the subsurface \textit{Microcystis} concentration peak and the center of gravity of the deep cyanobacteria layer are statistically significantly mediated by the thermal structure of the lake. The peak subsurface cyanobacteria biovolume scales linearly with the thermocline depth and temperature, whereas the center of gravity of the subsurface cyanobacteria biovolume scales linearly with the mixed layer depth and temperature. Furthermore, our data suggest there is a seasonal evolution of the subsurface cyanobacteria center of gravity that could potentially indicate timing of HAB onset. Based on easily measured parameters associated with the vertical lake temperature profile and meteorological conditions, we provide evidence of predictable trends in subsurface cyanobacteria variables.

Vaughan R. Voller

and 6 more

We hypothesize that onshore saline groundwater in delta systems may have resulted from rapid shoreline progradation during the Holocene. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a model for the transport of saline groundwater in a shore-normal longitudinal cross-section of an evolving ocean margin. The transport model uses a control volume finite element model (CVFEM), where the mesh of node points evolves with the changing aquifer geometry while enforcing local mass balance around each node. The progradation of the shoreline and evolution of the aquifer geometry is represented by assuming the shoreline advances at a prescribed speed with fixed top and foreset slopes. The combined model of transport and progradation, is used to predict the transient trapping of saline water under an advancing shore-line across a range of realistic settings for shoreline velocity and aquifer hydraulic properties. For homogeneous aquifers, results indicate that the distance behind the shoreline, over which saline water can be detected, is controlled by the ratio of the shoreline prorogation rate to the aquifer velocity and the Peclet number. The presence of confining units probably had the greatest impact in sequestering onshore seawater behind an advancing shoreline. Further support for the validity of the proposed model is provided by fitting model predictions to data from two field sites (Mississippi River and Bengal Deltas); the results illustrate consistent agreement between predicted and observed locations of fossil seawater.