Oskar Franklin

and 3 more

Moose (Alces alces) is a culturally and economically important game species in Sweden but its browsing on young pine trees in (Pinus sylvestris) cause extensive damage to forestry. Management is therefore posed with the dilemma of how to reduce damage to timber trees, while at the same time support robust moose populations. The proportion damaged trees can be reduced by decreasing the number of moose, but also by increasing the number of pines. However, it is not clear exactly how effective these measures are in general and how their impacts vary across Sweden. Here we analyzed the effects of moose- and pine density on pine damage using yearly data from almost all of Sweden’s moose management areas over the period 2015-2024 (718 observations). We developed a mechanistic model to realistically represent the browsing process and used regression with mixed models to account for variable vulnerability (damage at a given number of moose per pine tree) among MMAs in the statistical analysis. The model explained 53% of the variation in proportion damaged trees and showed that, on average, the relative damage reduction effect of a decreased moose population was larger (25%) than the effect of increased pine density (17%). Vulnerability to browsing varied substantially among MMAs and between years within each MMA, especially in areas with low pine density. This variability prevents reliable predictions of management effects at individual MMA level for most MMAs. Such local predictions may be improved in the future by incorporating longer time series of observations and additional variables, such as alternative food, browsing by other deer species, and snow cover.