On the basis of mathematical modeling of allergic rhinitis, hay fever diseases the analysis of dynamics of its prevalence in the 2000-2013 was conducted. Based on the results of the analysis of morbidity with the use of modern methods of evidence-based medicine was compiled prognosis of allergic rhinitis, hay fever in the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2023. According to the results of the prognosis it can be calculated in advance the need for medications, treatments and preventive processes, diagnosis of diseases of allergic rhinitis, hay fever. These tests were proved by the expected incidence rates of some regions and the whole of the Republic of Uzbekistan until 2023. It is proved that the studies comply with the objectives of improving the diagnosis and treatment of disease of allergic rhinitis, hay fever in inpatient and outpatient conditions and improvement in the field of drug supply and improve the efficiency of the treatment process.