Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb., locally known as Bijaysal, is a high-value tropical deciduous tree with a restricted and fragmented distribution in Nepal. We integrated 129 spatially occurring records with climatic, anthropogenic, edaphic, and topographic variables in an ensemble species distribution modelling framework (biomod2) to project current and future (2050s and 2090s) habitat suitability under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios. Minimum temperature of the coldest month and precipitation seasonality were the dominant climatic drivers, followed by soil organic carbon, bulk density, and human footprint. The current suitable habitat is limited (11,154 km²; 7.6 % of Nepal) and confined to the western and central lowlands. Future projections indicate habitat expansion ranging from 40 % (SSP1-2.6 2090s) to 313 % (SSP2-4.5 2050s) with consistent southeastward centroid shifts (46–127 km), reflecting both northward expansion into the mid‑hills and eastward reorganization within the lowlands. However, these projections should be interpreted with caution, as actual migration may be limited by seed dispersal mechanisms and soil suitability in high-elevation zones. The unimodal response to human footprint challenges the conventional protected-area paradigm and indicates that well-managed community forests can serve as critical climate refugia. These findings suggest that well‑managed community forests can complement protected areas by maintaining intermediate disturbance and provide a spatially explicit roadmap for assisted colonization into the mid‑elevation zones.

Protected areas are vital for preserving native biodiversity, yet invasive alien plant species (IAPS) pose significant threats to their conservation. This study investigates how IAPS diversity varies across their dispersal corridors, such as road verges, riversides, seasonal springs, fire lines, and trekking trails, and examines the relationship between tree canopy openness and IAPS richness. We sampled 156 plots (2m  5m) along these corridors, ensuring a minimum distance of 100 meters between plots. Out of 10 IAPS recorded during the study, road verges and riversides were invaded by 70% of the recorded species, while the walking trail had the lowest number of IAPS (30%). The most prevalent IAPS was Chromolaena odorata, followed by Mikania micrantha and Ageratum conyzoides. One-way ANOVA indicated significant differences in IAPS richness among dispersal corridors (p<0.001). Furthermore, IAPS richness increased with increasing tree canopy openness (R=0.8, p<0.001). Given that road verges and riversides appeared to be the major dispersal corridors of IAPS, it is imperative to prioritize these corridors for IAPS monitoring, early detection, eradication, and control. Such efforts can reduce the establishment probability of new IAPS and mitigate the impacts of the widespread IAPS on the native species and ecosystems.