Water table depth (WTD) is the predominant biophysical control over the occurrence of peat and forest fires in tropical peatlands. In Indonesia, prolonged droughts caused by El-Niño and/or positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), exacerbated by extensive peat drainage for agriculture and plantation establishment, can promote severe peatland fires by lowering WTD and hence desiccating surface and sub-surface peats. The severe drought episode of late 2015 across Indonesia, caused by a strong El Nino and a positive IOD, led to a major and damaging increase in peatland fires, highlighting an urgent need to develop operational systems to forecast potentially severe fire events to mitigate the impacts of fire and haze. The 2002 ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, signed and ratified by a total of 10 ASEAN states, including Indonesia, identifies a critical need for such systems based on near-time climate projections. However, such systems have not yet been developed. While an operational early warning system for forecasting dangerous burning conditions in Indonesia is currently within reach using state-of-the-art modelling tools, such as the ECMWF’s System 5 seasonal forecast model (SEAS5), development is still hampered by insufficient knowledge about the influence of fluctuations in peat moisture on fire, particularly during periods of extreme drought. The main objectives of this study were: i) to deploy a process-based ecosystem model “ecosys” to study how WTD and peat moisture profiles change in tropical peatlands across Riau province, Sumatra, in response to drought and land cover change, focusing on the 2015 drought; and ii) to examine whether those changes could have been predicted using SEAS5. Model spin-up from 2008-2014 was driven by inputs from ECMWF’s climate reanalysis data (ERA5), followed by 3 parallel simulations for 2015, driven by ERA5, ERA5 climatology, and SEAS5 hindcasts. Model outputs of peat moisture profiles and WTD showed how peat moisture and WTD were significantly affected by weather and land uses during the dry season of 2015 which were corroborated well against data from Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite and site-level monitoring networks. Our work is a pioneering attempt to perform large-scale process-based modelling to predict seasonal variations in tropical peatland WTD.

Experts in the area of educational research have documented that students can simultaneously possess alternate knowledge frameworks. Furthermore, the development and use of such knowledge frameworks are context dependent. John Heron, of University of Surrey provides guidelines to transform attitudes towards learning in educational institutions and society at large. Inspired by John Heron’s Research, the author has generated DISCUSS to cultivate inspiration in the college experience. In this presentation, the author presents an analysis of the data he has collected and tries to draw conclusions as to how to improve classroom teaching techniques. Directional: By providing direct guidance and steering them in the appropriate direction. Informative: By giving instruction and documenting necessary knowledge and information. Supporting: By affirming the worth and value of student’s beliefs, actions and qualities. Catalytic: By motivating and encouraging them to learn and to move towards self-discovery. Uplifting: By enabling the student to ease tension and to react to powerful emotions. Steering: By means of creative feedback to challenging the student to rise to the occasion. Stimulating: By asking the student to develop interesting problem-solving methodologies. In this presentation, the author tries to present a model analysis. Here, he tries to apply qualitative research to establish and interpret a quantitative data representation. References Gardner, Howard. Intelligence Reframed: Multiple Intelligences for the 21st Century. New York: Basic, 2000. Barr, R. B., & Tagg, J. (1995, November/December). From teaching to learning: A new paradigm for undergraduate education. Change: The Magazine of Higher Education, 13-24. Saxe, S. (1990, June). Peer influence and learning. Training and Development Journal, 42 (6), 50-53. Senge, P. M. (1990). The fifth discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization. New York: Currency Doubleday. Sims, R. R. (1992, Fall). Developing the learning climate in public sector training programs. Public Personnel Management, 21 (3), 335-346.

Surveying the seafloor with new technologies and techniques provides a new generation of higher-resolution imagery of both bathymetry and benthic habitat. Recent surveys using an Edgetech 4600 interferometric sonar have identified previously unknown patterns in these properties in the estuarine and nearshore areas in coastal Georgia, USA. As part of a multi-year mapping effort, four of the seven sounds in coastal Georgia have been mapped: Wassaw Sound, Ossabaw Sound, St. Catherine’s Sound and Sapelo Sound. Interferometry, sidescan sonar imagery and bottom sediment character have been combined to identify bathymetric patterns, diverse benthic habitats and to produce comprehensive habitat maps. Although the distribution of habitat types differs within each of these sites, all habitat types are common to all areas, and some general patterns emerge. Each site exhibits regions of mobile sediments, but of critical importance, also exhibits deep scours into semi-indurated materials that create vertical relief and hard substrates. Each project area can be divided into geomorphological features i.e., channels, deep depressions, vertical walls, ridges and flats. Bedforms are commonly visible, particularly in channels and depressions. Sediments are dominated by sand. These data, along with derivatives e.g., slope, rugosity and bathymetric position index, identify potentially important, complex habitat for sessile and mobile organisms. Scarps and ledges (up to 2 m high, up to 1000 m long) are distinctly recognizable in the sidescan imagery and slope analysis. This presentation will describe the procedures for working with shallow water interferometric sonar data and interpretations that can be reached using these tools.

Mean monthly climatological mixed layer depth (MLD) combined with temperature, dissolved oxygen, and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) are used to produce global estimates of the seasonal variability of ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA), O2 content anomaly (O2CA), and AOU content anomaly (ACA) in the surface mixed layer. Linear regression analyses show that the highest correlation occurs when O2CA lags OHCA by one month, whereas the highest correlation occurs when ACA lags OHCA by 2-3 months. The O2CA is negatively correlated, while the ACA is positively correlated with the OHCA in the mixed layer. The O2-heat ratio in the surface mixed layer is about -1.85 nmol/J in the subtropical and subpolar regions, which is on the same order of magnitude due to the O2 solubility effect alone. The solubility effect is the primary driver for the seasonal cycle of the O2 inventory in the mixed layer, and thus subject to changes in ocean warming. The 1-month lag between O2CA and OHCA suggests the O2 inventory quickly responds to heat content changes on seasonal time scales due to strong mixing in the mixed layer. The 2-3 month lag between ACA and OHCA suggests oxygen changes through biological activities take a longer time following OHC changes in relation to physical changes through O2 solubility. Our analysis indicates that the deoxygenation rate in the mixed layer, estimated from the regression analysis, is approximately -2.2 Tmol/year based on the O2-heat ratio in the mid-latitudes, accounting for 6±2% of the global deoxygenation for the time period 1955-2019.

Recent airborne radar-sounding surveys by NASAs Operation IceBridge revealed a large impact crater in the Hiawatha glacier region of northwest Greenland. The radar data used to identify the craters morphology included a 2016 survey carried out with a new ultrawideband radar system that demonstrated unprecedented levels of detail in the radar images. Notably, an unusual flat, specular reflector below the ice-bed interface was identified by visual inspection potentially as a groundwater table. However, this observation, and characterization of overlying material, has yet to be confirmed by a detailed radiometric analysis. This work analyzes four different flight segments with potential subglacial groundwater reflectors to constrain the bed geology and thermal regime, and probability that the sub-bed reflector is indeed a groundwater table. First, we exploit variation in the thickness of the subglacial layer between the ice-bed interface and the proposed ground water table to determine dielectric loss values. The bed material estimated is most likely a mixture of ice, dry sand, and air – with minuscule groundwater present in the layer between the ice-bed interface and the reflector. Lastly, we use the subglacial layer loss values to determine the radar reflectivity difference between the ice-bed interface and sub-bed reflector. The analyses are consistent with the presence of a groundwater table and are useful for providing additional geophysical constraints on the groundwater system beneath Hiawatha Crater. This detection is possible for subglacial settings that consist of a dry/frozen bed around 15 meters thick between the ice and water table in conjunction with a 150 to 520 MHz chirp radar system. Such groundwater sources are a commonly neglected but likely important component of glacier hydrology; they can drive water into till, elevate porewater pressures, reduce shear strength and significantly influence ice sheet dynamics and thus, sea level rise.

Using samples from the South Pole Ice Core (SPC14), we present new bubble number-density (BND) measurements and a modeled temperature history reconstruction for the South Pole site back through ~18.5 ka. Additionally, we show that 3D micro-CT sample imagery can accurately quantify BND, enabling more rapid and efficient future analyses. Using sampling and imaging techniques previously established for analyses of the WAIS Divide ice core (Spencer et al., 2006; Fegyveresi et al., 2016), we measured BND as well as other bubble characteristics from just below pore close-off depth starting at ~160 m, down to ~1200 m, at 20-meter intervals (53 total samples), with typical values ranging between 800 and 900 bubbles cm-3 over this interval. These values are higher than any previously recorded for ice-core BND, indicative of both colder average temperatures, and higher average accumulation rates at South Pole. Below ~1100 m, we noted significant bubble loss owing to the onset of clathrate-hydrate formation. Using micro-CT technology, we also tested the use of 3D imagery to accurately measure and evaluate BND as a supplement and future alternative to painstaking thin-section measurements. We imaged a secondary set of ice-core samples at 100-meter intervals starting at 200 m, and across the sample total depth range. Once corrected for cut- and micro-bubbles, our results show comparable values and thus similar trends to the thin-section data. For our temperature model, we determined an accumulation record using both measured annual layer thicknesses as well as estimated d15N-derived firn-column thicknesses estimates. Our temperature reconstruction was calculated using the model developed by Spencer et al. (2006), and using a South Pole site-specific bubble-to-grain ratio (G) of 1.6. the reconstruction reveals a warming across the glacial-interglacial transition of ~7°C, with a relatively stable trend through the Holocene (< 0.4°C warming). These results are in close agreement with those reported by other independent paleothermometers (i.e. isotope- and firn-derived reconstructions). Results of our temperature reconstruction also reveal that using 3D micro-CT imagery in place of traditional thin-section techniques produces comparable results, but with even greater accuracy, and lower measures of uncertainty.

In Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed with a prophetic knowledge of the future that no one would believe. The premise of this mythological prophet is also an apt description of the challenge facing scientists in communicating climate change. Central to addressing this challenge is the ability to examine, interpret and understand the individual scaffolding that underlies people's perception of climate change. Human-centered design incorporates a deep assessment of human needs in the design of systems and services, providing an alternative lens to engage in action towards climate change. Over the course of three separate design classes, attracting a diverse array of students from undergraduate to PhD to professional degrees, from engineers to humanists, we have explored the intersection of design education and climate change communication. In Design for a Habitable Planet, students conducted broad unstructured interviews to populate a matrix of beliefs and experiences around climate change, allowing them to bridge a perceived empathy gap. Their subjects included local fisherman, who are experiencing climate change but are ideologically opposed to the concept, and Alaska Native students who are experiencing climate change as part of a larger portfolio of challenges facing their communities. Leveraging theories from behavioral psychology, students then developed and prototyped an array of climate action campaigns, using an array of mediums from Snapchat filters to crowd-sourced climate haiku on beer labels. A unique outcome of the design process was a set of strategies intended to engage voices from all corners of the climate change debate and in turn inspire action. In Design of Data, students were challenged to design a data journalism piece highlighting positive action to address climate change. Students struggled with their pre-conceived negative bias around climate change, but after an examination of their own communities, what emerged were eight compelling stories daylighting positive and collective action to address global change. Ultimately, through our classroom experiments integrating design, behavioral psychology and climate change communication, students have not only learned to engage across differences, but we have developed a first glimpse of the power of design to inspire novel strategies to incite positive action to address climate change.

Ocean worlds are a promising environment for harboring extraterrestrial life. Their oceans, however, are often enclosed under a thick layer of ice. The current best estimate of the Europan ice crust thickness, for example, is 24 km. Thus, a key challenge to in situ exploration of these potentially life-rich waters is developing effective and efficient ways to penetrate the ice. Analytical and numerical thermal models of ice penetrators in cryogenic ice are available in the literature, but experimental validation of these models has been limited. To help close this gap, we have built scaled Model Validation Probes (MVPs) and evaluated their performance in the Europa Tower—a cryogenic vacuum chamber hosting an ice column of 0.75 m diameter and 2 m height, capable of maintaining ice at 90 K and surface pressure at near-vacuum (10-3 torr), similar to the conditions found on Europan surface. The tests monitored the fundamental probe performance variables of power and penetration speed, and additional variables such as ice and meltwater temperatures, and rough measurement of melt-hole shape. Seven tests were performed, ranging from 500 W to 1,200 W of input power. Four probes reached ~1 m of cryogenic ice penetration, and three probes reached the bottom of the 2 m ice column. All probes had confirmation of hole closure and the presence of liquid water inside the closed hole. This is the first realistic Europa-environment testing (cryogenic and vacuum) with subsurface penetration, hole closure, and liquid water. Comparison of our experimental results to the seminal Aamot model modified to handle temperature dependence of ice thermal properties shows that probe efficiency was below expectations, especially for high power probes. A detailed comparison of the experimental results to full finite volume numerical models results in better agreement and reveals the parameter range over which the Aamot model is valid. These results validate the core of the Aamot model while giving insight into its regime of applicability and the important factors governing deviations from its assumptions. The result of these endeavors is a deeper understanding of the dynamics of cryogenic ice penetration, directing future technological development and mission planning to enable direct exploration of environments that may harbor extraterrestrial life.

Large-eddy simulations of atmospheric boundary layer flows have historically relied on the open-channel flow setup, using mixed pseudospectral and finite differences methods. Single-domain spectral solvers are naturally suited for the simulation of homogeneous turbulence in simply-connected domains. Their quality, however, is expected to degrade significantly in the presence of complex geometries or non-periodic flow setups. On the contrary, general-purpose finite volumes solvers are expected to provide a more consistent performance across a range of flow configurations. In view of future applications involving flow over complex terrain, the quality and reliability of a colocated, unstructured, finite-volume solver (OpenFOAM framework) is here analyzed for the simulation of a pressure-driven atmospheric boundary layer flow. A sensitivity analysis on grid resolution, aspect ratio, and CFL condition is performed, and different numerical schemes are also considered. First and second order statistics, as well as velocity spectra and two-point velocity correlations, are compared to predictions from a “battle-tested” pseudo-spectral solver. The solution is found to be particularly sensitive to the grid aspect ratio and to the chosen numerical scheme. First and second order statistics obtained using a non-dissipative setup compare well between the solvers, with the finite volume one featuring an overdissipative behavior that leads to enhanced sub-grid scale stress contributions. When considering velocity spectra, the finite volume solver features a rapid decay of energy density within the inertial subrange, irrespectively of the discretization scheme that is adopted. In addition, a spurious pile up of energy density at high wave numbers is observed across all of the considered cases. The cause of this behavior will be discussed and mitigation strategies proposed.

We are investigating terrain deformations of long range and persistence that take place on continental scale over the stable shield of continental South America. The crustal deformation is being investigated by correlating with velocities and directions obtained from time series of approximately 60 GNSS stations deployed in Brazil and neighboring countries that take part of the Continuous network of the Geocentric Reference System for the Americas (SIRGAS-C). We attempt to estimate velocities and mid-plate strain rates using the best GNSS stations located in the stable South America mid-plate. The velocities have been estimated by Least Square Estimation (LSE) using SIRGAS weekly time series with a stochastic model composed of white noise plus flicker or random walk noises. Variance Component Estimation (VCE; Amiri-Simkooei et al., 2007) has been applied to classify the type of noise and compose the time series stochastic model. In addition, the time series breaks and offsets are taken into account in the LSE. The noises were classified as white plus flicker noise in approximately 70% of the horizontal component and most of random walk appears for stations located in the Amazon and Pantanal basins or near the coastal zones. The estimated formal precision reach about 0.10 mm/year with RMS of residual near 1.5 and 4.5 mm respectively for horizontal and vertical velocities. The estimated velocities by LSE were also computed by using the MIDAs code (Blewit et al 2015) and the results show an agreement of the order of 0.30 mm/y. The computed strain rates in the central part of Brazil indicate shortening, consistent with the predominance of reverse faulting mechanisms. When a station pair includes one station near the coast, the linear strain rates indicate extension. However, strain rates do not clearly indicate a preferred principal direction and do not seem compatible with the stress patterns derived from the focal mechanisms. In addition, the rate of seismic moment release indicates strain rates from earthquake occurrence two to three orders of magnitude lower than the observed strain rates from the geodetic network. Assessment of South America linear strain rates computed through estimated GNSS velocities will be discussed.

Forests are becoming drier due to a warming climate thus increasing the risk of wildfires. In recent years, wildfires have grown larger and more severe. In the U.S., over 80% of wildfires are human-caused and such events can substantially extend the fire season. At the same time, more and more people are living in areas where wildfires can burn. Recent fires have illustrated the devastating consequences of fires in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). In this context, the ability to rapidly assess fuel load is crucial in assessing and managing the risk of wildfires. Current methods for monitoring fuel loads (e.g., FIREMON, Brown’s Transect) are accurate but time- and personnel-intensive. The Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Observer Fire Fuel app is being developed using the Photoload Sampling Technique to offer options in rapidly assessing fuel loads by 1) providing citizen scientists with a fast and easy method to monitor WUI fuel loads, enabling them to contribute to the knowledge of fuels in their communities, and empowering them to think more about how fuels might be managed in their area; and 2) offering natural resource managers and fire science researchers a detailed, scientific application that primarily aids experts already studying fuels to better collect the fuels data they need. This poster will provide an overview of the GLOBE Observer Fire Fuel app and the current app development status. We will highlight the value and opportunity the power of smartphones and tablets offer to rapidly assess fuel loads via an app-based method compared to collecting the data on paper. We greatly welcome input from the fire science community at this point of the fire fuel app development.

People spend most of their time indoors, and therefore exposure to aerosols and precursor-gasses in the indoor environment is of extreme concern with respect to people’s health, well-being, working efficiency, and overall life quality. Such sources include both those emitted inside as well as those which may intrude from the outside. To better quantify and understand these sources and their impacts we employ multiple air quality monitors and simple models, both within and outside of various residential environments located in different cities of different development levels in China. To enhance the livability of the indoor environment, we further work to quantify two newly relevant factors: portable indoor aerosol filters and the idea of “increased ventilation”. The combined goal of this work is to understand the combination of factors leading to an improvement in Indoor Air Quality (IAQ), including but not limited to: mass transfer to/from the indoor environment, removal and/or enhancement due to the filters and ventilation, removal from the room itself, emissions, and other possible non-linearities not accounted for on this list. Concentrations of aerosols across different sizes from 0.3um to 10um are measured and analyzed at 2-minute intervals over a minimum of 20 days, allowing for an analysis that encompasses all of the possibilities of natural and anthropogenic variability typically encountered in a real environment. This includes analysis both with and without filters, under extreme outdoor loading conditions, with intense indoor emissions sources, pseudo-equilibrium conditions, and measurements made during different meteorological events, both with and without high rates of indoor to outdoor air exchange. Results show that the impacts are relatively large under both equilibrium and high event conditions, include both the magnitude of the drop as well as the time taken to achieve the reduction. A further conclusion is that increased ventilation may lead to a worsening of IAQ. A final conclusion is that larger particles more likely associated with PM2.5 are removed at a different rate from much smaller particles more associated with PM0.5 or PM1.

Mentorship experience can be transformational for college and graduate students as they learn how to talk about their science field, articulate their work, learn how to listen, and step away from the focus on their own work. The Lens on Climate Change (LOCC) program engaged secondary students in place-based, environmental science in an informal learning environment. Small groups of students worked together, with the guidance of graduate student science and community college film mentors, to produce a film about climate change, as they perceived it to be relevant to their local communities. The majority of student participants came from historically underserved communities, and the program aimed to provide students with opportunities to engage with science and technology in ways that differ from opportunities available in traditional schooling. The graduate student science mentors and community college film mentors played a critical role in supporting students in their exploration of the topic and learning about local climate change. This presentation explores the impacts on mentors and how the LOCC program influenced their experiences and interests in science education and outreach. Using a qualitative case study approach we examine mentor responses to questions about their mentorship experiences. These responses were collected before and after their experiences in the program, as well as through follow up interviews after the program had ended. Mentors fell into several categories based on how the LOCC program influenced them. Some mentors experienced a transformational impact, where the LOCC program played an influential role in their future career goals. Others felt the program helped them cement their career interests and plans. Several mentors did not experience as much impact on their career trajectory. We examine these relationships in the context of the project to consider how their experiences prior to and through LOCC may have influenced these outcomes.

No existing instrument is capable of consistently measuring all three components of the DC and low frequency electric field (E-field) throughout the heliosphere with sufficient accuracy to determine the smallest, and most geophysically relevant component: the E-field component parallel to the background magnetic field. E-field measurements in the heliosphere are usually made on spinning spacecraft equipped with two disparate types of double probe antennas: (1) long wire booms in the spin plane, and (2) ~10 times shorter rigid booms along the spin axis. On such systems, the potential difference (signal + noise) is divided by the boom length to produce a resultant E-field component. Because the spacecraft-associated errors are larger nearer the spacecraft, the spin plane components of the E-field are well measured while the spin axis component are poorly measured. As a result, uncertainty in the parallel E-field is usually greater than its measured value. Grotifer leverages more than fifty years of expertise in delivering highly accurate spin plane E-field measurements, while overcoming inaccuracies generated by spin axis E-field measurements. Its design consists of mounting detectors on two rotating plates, oriented at 90° with respect to each other, on a non-rotating central body. Each rotating plate has two component measurements of the E-field such that the Twin Orthogonal Rotating Platforms (TORPs) provide four instantaneous measurements of the E-field, and the three E-field components are well-measured by the rotating detectors. Grotifer (Giant rotifer) is a reference to the rotifer, also known as the “wheel animalcule”, which has twin crowns of antenna-like cilia that appear to rotate in all directions. Grotifer marks a profound change in E-field instrument design that represents the best path forward to close the observational gap that currently hampers resolution of significant science questions at the forefront of space plasma physics research. Here, we present the Grotifer design concept implemented as a 27-U CubeSat, discuss the important features in the design and operation of Grotifer, and demonstrate the feasibility of implementing Grotifer using existing sub-systems and technologies.

Low-lying coastal zones are prone to flooding from multiple drivers such as storm surge (oceanographic), excessive river discharge (fluvial), and/or surface runoff (pluvial). The flooding impacts can be exacerbated, depending on local characteristics, when flooding is intensified by concurrent (or successive) occurrence of multiple drivers known as ‘compound flooding’. Recently, compound flooding drivers are becoming more frequent and intense leading to more adverse impacts. In this study, we carry out a continental scale analysis for the CONUS coastline at locations with sufficiently long overlapping records to characterize the changes in dependence and co-occurrence between the compound flooding drivers over time. We also investigate the changes in dependence over time during tropical and extratropical seasons. Lastly, we assess how the dependence structure varies with time. We use observations (gauge records) for the analysis. Dependence between different pairs is assessed using co-occurrence counts and statistical measures for dependence (Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient, τ). The dependence structures (particularly the tails of bivariate distributions) are compared using Kullback–Leibler (KL) Divergence to assess if there are significant changes in tails of bivariate distributions over time. This analysis provides a comprehensive characterization of changes in compound flooding potential around the CONUS coastline. This will provide insights on where and how compound flooding potential has changed over time to be incorporated in flood risk assessments and planning.

Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS). This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC-Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970-2100. We apply the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause-effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty-first century.

The so-called regularized Biot-Savart laws (RBSLs, Titov et al. 2018) provide an efficient and flexible method for modeling pre-eruptive magnetic configurations whose characteristics are constrained by observational image and magnetic-field data. This method allows one to calculate the field of magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) with small circular cross-sections and an arbitrary axis shape. The field of the whole configuration is constructed as a superposition of (1) such a flux-rope field, (2) an ambient potential field determined, for example, by the radial field component of an observed magnetogram, and (3) a so-called compensating potential field that counteracts deviations of the radial field caused by the axial current of the MFR. The RBSL kernels are determined from the requirement that the MFR field for a straight cylinder must be exactly force-free. For a curved MFR, however, the magnetic forces are generally unbalanced over the whole path of the MFR. To reduce this imbalance, we apply a modified Gauss-Newton method to minimize the magnitude of the residual magnetic forces per unit length and the unit axial current of the MFR. This is done by iteratively adjusting the MFR axis path and axial current. We then try to relax the resulting optimized configuration in a subsequent line-tied zero-beta MHD simulation toward a force-free equilibrium. By considering several examples, we demonstrate how this approach works depending on the initial parameters of the MFR and the ambient magnetic field. Our method will be beneficial for both the modeling of particular eruptive events and theoretical studies of idealized pre-eruptive magnetic configurations. This research is supported by NSF, NASA’s HSR, SBIR, and LWS Programs, and AFOSR

Many researchers have studied the terrestrial water cycle at global and local scales, determining the reasons for its change over time, space, and changing climates. However, event-wise analysis in a higher frequency variability (e.g., daily scale) of surface water flow and the associated complexity in its change remains unexplored. We define magnitude and duration for wet and dry phases of CaMa-Flood simulated discharge (forced by 10 CMIP6 model runoffs) for two future scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) and compare them with their respective historical scenario to unravel the intricacies accompanied by shifts in discharge under climate change. We found a substantial wet-dry asymmetricity in magnitude and duration shifts, particularly for extreme events. Further, these asymmetric shifts are more prominent for the dry phase than the wet phase for the duration of events, whereas magnitude shifts in the wet phase are more pronounced than the dry phase. There is an intensification of magnitude and duration of moderate events for both dry and wet phases, while for extreme events increase in wet phase magnitude and duration is complemented by a decrease in dry phase changes. Additionally, the discharge shifts are associated with relatively homogenous magnitude-duration shifts for the dry phase than the wet phase, particularly for extreme events. Our research reveals a rather voluminous wet-phase shift than dry-phase shifts but lengthier dry-phase shifts than wet-phase shifts for warmer climates in the future that tend to intensify with additional warming for most regions of the world.