Climate change will significantly impact the ecological suitability and diversity of species. As a predatory natural enemy, Aporinellus Banks, 1911 (Hymenoptera: Pompilidae) regulates spiders populations through predation, thereby affecting downstream secondary producers, maintaining ecosystem balance, and providing important ecosystem services. In this research, the MaxEnt model was applied to simulate the potential distribution of habitats in China, considering current and future climate scenarios (ssp126, ssp245, ssp370, and ssp585). The analysis was based on 89 occurrence points and 55 environmental variables. The model achieved an average AUC value of 0.923, indicating excellent performance, with predicted results highly consistent with observed data. The findings show that the main factors influencing habitat distribution are the mean maximum temperature of January (44.3%) and total precipitation in November (10%). Under current climatic conditions, an estimated 52.97% of China’s landmass is predicted to provide suitable habitat for Aporinellus, with suitability predominantly concentrated in provinces including Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan, and Taiwan. However, under future climate change conditions, suitable habitats are projected to decrease, with the potential distribution in low-suitability areas showing a general downward trend. Under the ssp585 scenario, suitable habitats are expected to decline by 5.57% during 2021-2040 and by 12.45% during 2081-2100. Overall, under both current and future climatic conditions, the suitable habitats of Aporinellus are concentrated in warm and humid agroecological zones. These results advance our understanding of the mechanisms by which environmental variables govern the habitat suitability of Aporinellus, provide a foundation for the conservation and utilization of spider wasps species diversity, and offer valuable perspectives into the diversity, stability, and dynamic changes of the ecosystems they inhabit.