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Preparing for the upcoming 2022/23 influenza season: a modelling study of the susceptible population in Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom
  • +2
  • Bronke Boudewijns,
  • W. John Paget,
  • Marco Del Riccio,
  • Laurent Coudeville,
  • Pascal Crepey
Bronke Boudewijns
Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research
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W. John Paget
Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research
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Marco Del Riccio
Netherlands Institute for Health Services Research
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Laurent Coudeville
Sanofi, Modeling Epidemiology and Data Science
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Pascal Crepey
Université de Rennes 1

Corresponding Author:pascal.crepey@ehesp.fr

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Abstract

We analysed the influenza epidemic that occurred in Australia during the 2022 winter using an age-structured dynamic transmission model which accounts for past epidemics to estimate the population susceptibility to an influenza infection. We applied the same model to five European countries. Our analysis suggests Europe might experience an early and moderately large influenza epidemic. Also, differences may arise between countries, with Germany and Spain experiencing larger epidemics, than France, Italy and the UK, especially in children.
09 Dec 2022Submitted to Influenza and other respiratory viruses
10 Dec 2022Submission Checks Completed
10 Dec 2022Assigned to Editor
11 Dec 2022Editorial Decision: Accept