Understanding the spatial distribution of suitable habitats is fundamental for effective conservation planning and management. The eastern Great Bustard (Otis tarda dybowskii), an endangered migratory bird, suffers from habitat fragmentation and loss due to human disturbance and climate change. More than 300 Great Bustards overwintered in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, which is considered as the strongest economic vitality in northern China. However, it is unknown to what extent this region of relatively high level of human disturbance can provide suitable habitats in the current and future time. An ensemble species distribution modeling framework was used to analyze current habitat suitability and project future changes under four climate scenarios for the 2061-2080 period. A total of 82 spatially thinned wintering occurrence records (2014-2024) and 18 carefully selected environmental variables were used. The ensemble model achieved excellent predictive accuracy (AUC=0.994; TSS=0.937). Slope was identified as the most influential variable (54.2% contribution), followed by precipitation of the driest month (bio14) and precipitation seasonality (bio15). Distance to village was a key anthropogenic factor. Future projections reveal a concerning trend: suitable habitats are expected to contract and become more fragmented. Under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), high-suitability habitat is projected to be entirely lost. This study provides the first high-resolution, ensemble-based habitat assessment for the Great Bustard in the BTH. The findings offer a vital scientific foundation for designing targeted conservation strategies, including protected area expansion and climate-adaptive management, to safeguard this critically endangered population.