Background Pulsed field ablation (PFA) is an emerging non-thermal modality for atrial fibrillation (AF) that promises tissue selectivity and reduced complications compared with conventional thermal ablation (radiofrequency or cryoballoon). However, long-term efficacy remains uncertain. This Bayesian meta-analysis and systematic review synthesizes randomized and prospective data, incorporating Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate evidence robustness—a novel approach to assess statistical fragility in AF ablation trials. Methods Following PRISMA guidelines and PROSPERO registration (CRD420251146923), we searched PubMed, Embase, and other databases through August 2025 for studies comparing PFA with thermal ablation in adults with paroxysmal or persistent AF. Primary outcome was 12-month treatment success (freedom from arrhythmia, antiarrhythmic drugs, cardioversion, or repeat ablation). Secondary outcomes included arrhythmia recurrence (>30 seconds post-blanking), repeat ablation, procedure time, and safety (adverse events). We employed frequentist and Bayesian random-effects models with non-informative priors, alongside Monte Carlo simulations (5000–10,000 iterations) to estimate trial power and meta-analytic success probabilities under varying heterogeneity. Results From 5 studies (n=1,234 patients), PFA showed higher odds of 12-month treatment success (Bayesian mean OR 1.63, 95% CrI 1.02–2.60) and a trend toward reduced recurrence (OR 0.61, 95% CrI 0.34–1.09), with shorter procedure times (mean difference –24.2 minutes, 95% CrI –42.4 to –6.1) and comparable safety (overall adverse events OR 1.22, 95% CrI 0.50–2.96). Heterogeneity was moderate (I 2 48–60%). Simulations revealed individual trials (n=300/arm) are underpowered (~66% power), but meta-analyses achieve 27–70% success probability, emphasizing aggregation’s value. Conclusions PFA demonstrates non-inferior efficacy to thermal ablation with superior procedural efficiency and equivalent safety, potentially transforming AF management. Monte Carlo insights highlight the need for larger trials, positioning PFA as a clinically efficient rhythm control strategy.