Abstract: Ungulates play a vital role in maintaining the integrity of the high mountain ecosystem by sustaining plant community structure and regulating predator populations. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the interaction of sympatric species in the mountainous landscape. In this study we aim to investigate the seasonal spatial and temporal overlap between two sympatric species namely barking deer ( Muntiacus vaginalis) and Himalayan goral ( Naemorhedus goral) in Uttarkashi, district of Uttarakhand. We employed niche equivalency and niche similarity test, to quantify the niche overlap of these sympatric species. Total of 99 trails were traversed and 134 camera traps were deployed to collect data on the sympatric ungulate species. The finding of non-significant niche similarity test statistics and significant background test statistics indicated that both sympatric ungulates have broad niche similariy relative to the same available environmental space throughout year. Overall niche overlap index showed modrate to high (0.58), however in summer showed modrate (0.54) and in winter showed low overlap (0.34). We also investigate the temporal activity pattern of both species, where barking deer showed diurnal and crepuscular activity pattern with highest peak activity during mid-day hours while Himalayan goral was active throughout the day with peak activity during morning and evening hours. The daily activity index Dhat value showed highest temporal overlap was found in winter season (0.79) and lowest in summer season (0.71). This study provided useful information to understand the coexistence pattern of sympatric ungulates in Himalaya, which will be helpful for their long term conservation and management. Understanding these interactions provides insights into the mechanisms driving community structure and species persistence in increasingly complex ecosystems.

Globally the climate change is leading to profound shifts in species distributions, particularly in high-altitude ecosystems where cold-adapted fauna face limited options for upslope migration. We investigated the biogeographic responses of the Himalayan Ibex (Capra sibirica), a Near Threatened mountain ungulate and key prey species of the Snow Leopard, to ongoing and projected climate change across the Western Himalaya in India. Using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) integrating five algorithms (MaxEnt, Random Forest, BRT, GLM, and MARS), we modeled current (2018–2023) and future habitat suitability for the years 2050, 2070, and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (intermediate) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). We further examined habitat connectivity using least-cost path and circuit theory-based tools, and assessed landscape fragmentation using FRAGSTATS metrics. Our results indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable habitat of Himalayan Ibex is projected to decline sharply from 16,127 km² (8% of the landscape) to 5,241 km² (3%) by 2090. Additionally, the number of core habitat patches is expected to fall from 19 to 10, and functional ecological linkages from 25 to 11 under SSP2-4.5, signaling a considerable breakdown in landscape connectivity. Fragmentation metrics reveal increasing patch isolation, declining core area size, and overall loss of landscape cohesion. Alarmingly, 88% of the most suitable habitats lie outside the current protected area network, raising concerns about the efficacy of existing conservation strategies. Our findings demonstrate that the Himalayan Ibex is highly vulnerable to climate-driven habitat shifts and fragmentation. These spatial dynamics pose serious challenges not only to the species’ persistence but also to the broader integrity of alpine ecosystems. We emphasize the need to embed climate-informed biogeographic modeling and connectivity planning into conservation frameworks to secure long-term ecological resilience in the Western Himalayas.

[1]¿p#1 newcommands Climate change and accelerating land-use transformation are expected to profoundly alter habitat suitability, connectivity, and genetic structure of wide-ranging mammals, particularly in high-elevation ecosystems. We evaluated climate-driven changes in habitat suitability and population genetic structure of the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in the western Himalaya. We integrated species occurrence records and individual level nuclear DNA data with environmental predictors to examine climate-driven changes in distribution, genetic diversity, and population structure. Environmental variables were first screened using MaxEnt to identify a parsimonious set of predictors, which were then incorporated into an ensemble species distribution modelling framework comprising eleven modelling algorithms to predict current habitat suitability. Future distributions were projected under low- (RCP 2.6) and high-emission (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios for the mid-century (2050s) and late-century (2070s). In parallel, genetic and environmental data were integrated within a hierarchical Bayesian framework (POPS) to infer spatial patterns of genetic structure and assess their stability under future climate change. Current habitat suitability was primarily governed by climatic variables, with annual mean temperature emerging as the most influential predictor. Future projections indicated significant redistribution of suitable habitat, characterized by high stability under low-emission scenarios but pronounced spatial turnover and net habitat loss under high-emission scenarios by the 2070s. Genetic analyses revealed weak population structuring and widespread admixture across the landscape, indicating high levels of connectivity among Asiatic black bears. Nevertheless, projected shifts in habitat suitability, particularly toward higher elevations, may alter historical and existing connectivity patterns and potentially disrupt existing gene flow pathways. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating habitat suitability projections with population genetic analyses to identify climate-driven risks to connectivity and genetic diversity. Incorporating future habitat dynamics into conservation planning will be essential for maintaining long-term population viability of Asiatic black bears in the Himalaya under ongoing climate change.

Globally the climate change is leading to profound shifts in species distributions, particularly in high-altitude ecosystems where cold-adapted fauna face limited options for upslope migration. We investigated the biogeographic responses of the Himalayan Ibex (Capra sibirica), a Near Threatened mountain ungulate and key prey species of the Snow Leopard, to ongoing and projected climate change across the Western Himalaya in India. Using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) integrating five algorithms (MaxEnt, Random Forest, BRT, GLM, and MARS), we modeled current (2018–2023) and future habitat suitability for the years 2050, 2070, and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (intermediate) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). We further examined habitat connectivity using least-cost path and circuit theory-based tools, and assessed landscape fragmentation using FRAGSTATS metrics. Our results indicate that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the suitable habitat of Himalayan Ibex is projected to decline sharply from 16,127 km² (8% of the landscape) to 5,241 km² (3%) by 2090. Additionally, the number of core habitat patches is expected to fall from 19 to 10, and functional ecological linkages from 25 to 11 under SSP2-4.5, signaling a considerable breakdown in landscape connectivity. Fragmentation metrics reveal increasing patch isolation, declining core area size, and overall loss of landscape cohesion. Alarmingly, 88% of the most suitable habitats lie outside the current protected area network, raising concerns about the efficacy of existing conservation strategies. Our findings demonstrate that the Himalayan Ibex is highly vulnerable to climate-driven habitat shifts and fragmentation. These spatial dynamics pose serious challenges not only to the species’ persistence but also to the broader integrity of alpine ecosystems. We emphasize the need to embed climate-informed biogeographic modeling and connectivity planning into conservation frameworks to secure long-term ecological resilience in the Western Himalayas.