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\title{Unsurprising Protests? The moderating effect of democratic institutions
on protest and state concessions}



\author[1]{Thea Johansen}%
\affil[1]{Norwegian University of Science and Technology}%


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  \date{April 16, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
Protest size, defined as the number of people a movement brings to the
streets to protest, is the one of the strongest predictors of regime
concessions. In this paper, I argue that seemingly democratic
institutions provide autocratic regimes with information about the size
and preferences of the opposition which moderates the effectiveness of
increased protest size on concessions. Better information about
potential dissent ex ante enables regimes to withstand larger protests
without conceding to protesters. To test the argument, data was sourced
from the Mass Mobilization in Autocracies database (MMAD) v4, Varieties
of Democracy (V-Dem) v12, and Integrated Crisis Early Warnings System
(ICEWS). I run country-fixed effects models on a panel of 15650
country-months. I find that the positive effect of increased protest
participation on state concessions in autocracies is moderated by
democratic institutions that provide regimes with information on the
size, strength and preferences of the opposition.%
\end{abstract}%



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