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Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan
Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan
Assistant Professor
Dr. Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan completed his Ph.D. from the Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines) Dhanbad in the year 2019. He is presently serving as Assistant Professor in the School of Applied science and languages at VIT Bhopal University, Bhopal. He has published papers at various International Journals. His research interest includes survey sampling. Apart from teaching experience, he has expertise in giving statistical consultancy services. Also, he has been a resource person for many workshops and certificate courses
India

Public Documents 1
Quantifying Climate Variability in India with a Jump-Diffusion SDE Model
Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

Sayed Mohammed Zeeshan

May 30, 2025
We present a jump-diffusion stochastic differential equation model for all-India monthly rainfall anomalies from 1901 to 2021, which captures both continuous mean-reverting variability and discrete heavy-rain "jumps." Seasonal cycles are removed to obtain anomalies Ai, with the top 5% of values identified as Poisson-driven jumps at a rate of 0.605 events per year. Jump sizes follow a Gamma distribution (α = 20.24, θ = 2.84), while non-jump increments exhibit linear drift a(R) = 0.123 + 0.877R and diffusion σ = 23.59 mm month-1/2. Simulations reproduce observed dynamics, and sliding-window analysis reveals slight long-term declines in jump frequency and volatility. Return-level analysis yields 10-year and 100-year anomalies of 69.8 mm and 88.0 mm, respectively, and exceedance probabilities are quantified for various horizons. This framework offers actionable metrics for water-resource planning, flood risk management, and insurance applications.

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