Muyao Qi

and 5 more

Aim To understand: i) how the potential influence of climate change on future distributions of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi and, ii) how this influence varies with ECM fungal host specificity. Location Europe. Time period 1971-2021 Major taxa studied Ectomycorrhizal fungi Methods We applied an ensemble model to project the future distributions of 60 common ECM fungal species in European forests under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370 and SSP585) for 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. Both biotic and abiotic environmental variables were included in the modelling process, with species classified into broadleaf specialists (19), conifer specialists (22) and generalists (19). We calculated the projected future distribution areas and centroids, and compared the future distribution to the current distribution (distribution area and centroids) for each species under different climate scenarios, changes in distribution area, and shifts in distributions under each climate scenario based on ECM fungal host specificity. Results We found that host tree distributions make strong contributions to future distribution modelling of ECM fungi, but their influence varied with ECM fungal host specificity. The distributions of most ECM fungal species will decrease and shift north under three climate scenarios in both 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, and most ECM fungal conifer specialists are predicted to lose their current habitat compared to broadleaf specialists and generalists. Main conclusions Our results indicate that most species are projected to lose distribution area, from 0.2 to 64%, under climate change. Thus, more attention needs to be paid to assessing the status of ECM fungi and their conservation, especially for conifer specialists.