Ban Xuan

and 7 more

Understanding energy limitations on fish populations in fragile high-altitude lake ecosystems is critical for sustainable fisheries management. This study develops a satellite-based framework integrating MODIS-derived chlorophyll-a with Vertically Generalized Production Model (VGPM) to map Fish Potential Production (FPP) and establish a novel Fish Carrying Capacity Index (FCCI) for the endemic naked carp ( Gymnocypris przewalskii) in Qinghai Lake, China (2002-2024). Results showed that seasonal FPP peaked in summer (July-August: 30-50 g/m 2) and declined in spring (May-June: 0-30 g/m 2), with annual gross monthly FPP ranging from 42,000 to 176,000 tonnes. Long-term trends revealed a 23-year increase in FPP, punctuated by cyclical fluctuations (2-4 year cycles), peaking in 2019. Spatial heterogeneity was prominent, with higher FPP near tributary estuaries (e.g., Buha River: 40-50 g/m 2 in 2019) and lower values in the central lake. The derived FCCI demonstrated spatial imbalances, with higher pressure in north-western regions (FCCI >0.6) and underutilized resources in the southeast (FCCI <0.3). Despite a 50-fold increase of fish production (FP) from 2,592 tonnes (2002) to 12,7500 tonnes (2024), FCCI remained below 0.6, indicating sufficient primary productivity to sustain current fish populations and substantial potential for strategic restocking. This study underscores the utility of remote sensing in large-scale ecological monitoring, offering actionable insights for balancing conservation and fisheries productivity in sensitive plateau ecosystems.