Urban Ecological Resilience (UER) is a critical capability for addressing ecological imbalances resulting from the pressures of rapid urbanization. This study developed a comprehensive UER assessment model encompassing three dimensions: adaptability, resistance, and recovery. Utilizing geographic detectors and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, the study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanisms of Yichang’s UER from 2003 to 2023. Furthermore, it simulated multiple development scenarios for 2035 and proposed zoning optimization strategies, providing scientific evidence for sustainable ecological development. The results indicated that Yichang’s UER followed a “decline-then-rise” temporal trend. Spatially, higher resilience was observed in the northwest and lower resilience in the southeast, reflecting a heterogeneous spatial distribution. At the regional level, UER was influenced by factors such as ecological protection efforts, agricultural development, and water resource conditions. At the zonal level, ecological protection areas were primarily influenced by industrial development, whereas ecological conservation areas were shaped by the interaction between terrain conditions and ecological protection measures. Resilience-enhancing areas were mainly driven by the availability and management of water resources. Multi-scenario simulations indicated that, under a development model oriented toward water ecology protection, Yichang’s UER significantly outperformed other scenarios. The study proposed a three-tier spatial regulation framework: ”rigid constraints for protection areas, threshold control for conservation areas, and dynamic balance for resilience-enhancing areas.” This framework facilitated the coordinated improvement of UER across the region and offered a reference model for differentiated ecological governance in cities along the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.