Hydroclimatic trends and socioeconomics suggest declining water
resources in the cascade reservoirs of the Tocantins River
Abstract
Research on hydroclimatic variations explains the relationships between
water masses and global climate factors. Climate change causes changes
in river flow regimes and impacts ecosystems, the economy, and society.
In this study, we characterized the hydroclimatology of the seven
reservoirs of the Tocantins River, along 1,500 km of river and during
more than 12 years of sampling, where we analyzed climatic variables
such as precipitation, global solar radiation, net evaporation, and air
temperature, in addition to hydrological variables such as discharge and
net evaporation of the reservoirs. We identified that the discharge of
the reservoirs recovered more slowly after the dry period and that these
discharges decreased at a rate of 575 m3/s between 1995 and 2023,
followed by a negative and significant downward trend. As with
discharge, precipitation showed a downward trend. The water deficit
caused by prolonged droughts between 2015 and 2017 resulted in lower
flows and higher air temperatures. In addition to climatic factors, the
socioeconomics of the reservoir areas demand high water withdrawals,
associated with population growth and agricultural production. We
conclude that the reservoirs have a hydroclimatic gradient with
latitudinal variations. These gradients are mainly due to differences in
precipitation and flows, but are highly dependent on temperature
conditions, solar radiation, evaporation, and water withdrawal. These
factors are important and should be discussed in order to mitigate the
ecological and socioeconomic impacts on the Tocantins River basin.