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The shapes of clines and wavefronts
  • Stuart Baird,
  • Nina Daley
Stuart Baird
The Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic

Corresponding Author:stuartj.e.baird@gmail.com

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Nina Daley
Masaryk University
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Abstract

Cline theory has a central place in speciation studies. Cline locations delimit taxon boundaries, cline widths scale with barrier strength, and the shapes of clines (smooth or stepped) suggest whether species barriers are mono- or polygenic. How cline shapes vary along chromosomes therefore forms part of the genome species barrier landscape. Further, asymmetric moving clines (wave fronts) can mark adaptive introgression puncturing species barriers, potentially leading to their collapse or decay. Here we review the development of cline and wavefront models and relate this to the use of dispersal kernels in epidemiology and ecology. We contrast classical results to those for a thick-tailed kernel, showing how cline shape affects the speed of spatial process, including the widening of neutral clines and the spatial coalescent. We critique current cline models used for inference (both spatial and genomic clines) and address Barton’s question: Why (after decades of cline fitting) is there so little evidence of stepped clines? We suggest evidence is weak because stepped cline models are over-parameterised. We propose minimum parameter stepped cline models, and discuss non-parametric approaches, that may help resolve the issue. This broadens to a discussion of the future of, and alternatives to, cline fitting.
12 Feb 2025Submitted to Molecular Ecology
14 Feb 2025Submission Checks Completed
14 Feb 2025Assigned to Editor
14 Feb 2025Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
22 Feb 2025Reviewer(s) Assigned