Abstract
Seriphidium transiliense is a key species in the arid and
semi-arid desert grasslands of Northwest China, playing crucial roles in
maintaining ecological balance, stabilizing soil, and supporting
biodiversity. However, the combined effects of global climate change and
human activities are leading to a dramatic reduction in suitable habitat
area, intensified habitat fragmentation, and ecosystem degradation. This
study utilizes the MaxEnt model, along with field investigation data and
online recorded data, selecting 159 effective occurrence points and
integrating 20 environmental variables such as bioclimatic, soil,
topographic, solar radiation, and human footprint factors, to evaluate
the distribution patterns and dynamic changes of suitable habitats for
S. transiliense under current climatic conditions and six future climate
scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). The results indicate that the total
suitable habitat area for S. transiliense under current conditions is
86.20 × 10⁴ km², mainly concentrated in northern Xinjiang. Human
activities have drastically reduced the suitable habitat area, with the
total area shrinking to 75.78 × 10⁴ km², and the highly suitable habitat
area decreasing from 5.72 × 10⁴ km² to 2.00 × 10⁴ km². Climate change in
the future might expand its distribution range, but human activities
continue to threaten its habitat, especially in areas of highly suitable
habitat. The distribution center tends to migrate southeastward or
northwestward under different climate scenarios, along with shifts in
elevation. This research offers a scientific foundation for the
monitoring, protection, and ecological restoration of S. transiliense
and underscores the necessity of scientific management and reseeding
restoration amid escalating human activities.