Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Uncertain Direct and
Cascading Climate Risks in Multi-sectoral Systems: A Case of The Lielupe
Basin
Abstract
Anticipating and managing future climate risks in interconnected
multi-sectoral systems is complicated by uncertainties in risk drivers
in both human and natural systems. Comprehensive yet comprehensible
targeted climate risk information exploring these uncertainties is
relevant for e.g. strategic allocation of limited resources to the most
vulnerable areas and sectors. To address these complexities, this study
introduces an interdisciplinary methodology combining meteorological,
hydrological, and socio-economic perspectives, tested in the
flood-prone, transboundary Lielupe basin shared by Latvia and Lithuania.
A ’plausibilistic’ risk assessment approach is applied in which
plausible climate scenario storylines are sampled on their relevance for
local impacts, allowing the assessment of conditional changes in
high-impact probabilistic discharges. In addition, plausible yet
differently structured future urban areas and economies are sampled to
project direct impact potential and its cascading socio-economic
effects. By integrating both climate and socio-economic scenarios, a
risk mapping can be made to highlight regions where (compounding) risk
drivers may occur. Application to the Lielupe basin reveals those areas
and sectors most vulnerable to climate impacts across diverse climate
and socio-economic scenarios. Our comprehensive approach equips regional
risk managers with targeted risk information essential for prioritising
adaptation planning.