Turning the tide: a 2°C increase in heat tolerance can halve climate
change induced losses in four cold-adapted kelp species.
Abstract
Kelp forests are susceptible to climate change as their sessile nature
and low dispersal capacity hinders tracking of suitable conditions. The
emergence of a wide array of approaches to increasing thermal tolerance
seeks to change the outlook of biodiversity in a changing climate but
lacks clear targets of impactful thermal resilience. Here, we utilize
species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate the potential of enhanced
thermal tolerance to buffer the effects of climate change on
cold-adapted kelp species: Saccharina latissima, Alaria esculenta,
Laminaria hyperborea, and Laminaria digitata. For each species, we
compared a baseline model - where the thermal niche remained unchanged -
to models where the simulated maximum sea surface temperature tolerance
was increased by 1-5°C. These models were projected into three climate
change scenarios: sustainability (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)
1-1.9, Paris Agreement), regional rivalry (SSP3-7.0) and fossil-fuel
development (SSP 5-8.5). Our SDMs demonstrate that an increase of 1-2°C
in thermal tolerance could recover over 50% of predicted losses of
suitable habitat for cold-adapted kelps. However, A. esculenta and L.
digitata still faced persistent habitat reductions (up to 20%) under
SSP1-1.9 and SSP3-7.0, even with a simulated 5°C increase in thermal
tolerance. Furthermore, A. esculenta, a species of growing commercial
interest, showed disproportionate habitat contraction across all climate
change scenarios and simulated tolerance increases. Our findings
highlight the need for a two-pronged approach to conserve cold-adapted
kelp forests: stringent reductions in greenhouse gas emission reductions
in line with the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and strategies to boost kelp thermal
tolerance by at least 1-2°C. This dual approach is crucial to maintain
90% of the current suitable habitat of S. latissima and L. digitata,
and 70% for A esculenta and L. hyperborea. Relying on mitigation or
adaptation alone will likely be insufficient to maintain their historic
range under projected climate change.