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The impact of global change on the distribution of mountain mammals and birds
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  • Chiara Dragonetti,
  • Wilfried THUILLER,
  • Maya Guégen,
  • Julien Renaud,
  • Piero Visconti,
  • Moreno Di Marco
Chiara Dragonetti
Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza

Corresponding Author:chiara.dragonetti@uniroma1.it

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Wilfried THUILLER
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS
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Maya Guégen
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS
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Julien Renaud
Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine
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Piero Visconti
IIASA
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Moreno Di Marco
University of Rome La Sapienza Department of Biology and Biotechnology Charles Darwin
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Abstract

Climate change and land-use changes are key drivers of global biodiversity loss. Many species are shifting to higher elevations or latitudes in response to global warming, often encountering unfavorable land-use conditions during the shift. This leads to reduced range size and increased extinction risks, particularly for mountain species, often confined to narrow, high-altitude habitats. Predicting future distributions of mountain species requires an accounting for their bioclimatic responses, detailed topographical distribution, land-use preferences, and ability to colonise new areas via dispersal mechanisms. These elements are rarely considered together over large scales. Here, we projected the future distribution of 32 mountain mammal and 344 non-migratory mountain bird species by 2050 under different emission scenarios (SSP-RCP 1-2.6 and SSP-RCP 5-8.5). Using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) that incorporated topography, climate, and land-use data, we assessed the impacts of global change on species’ ranges across mountain regions worldwide, accounting for realistic dispersal scenarios. Under the high-emissions scenario, species were projected to experience significantly greater range loss compared to the low-emissions scenario, with a difference of 17% of loss for birds and 16% for mammals. The number of species that shift their range also increased, passing from 73 to to 84. The most severe range losses were projected for species located in tropical mountain ranges, while European and North American mountains showed lower losses, highlighting substantial regional differences in vulnerability. When land-use changes were included in the models, projected range losses increased further, particularly under the low-emissions scenario (+2%). Our findings emphasize the importance of considering both climate and land-use changes when assessing biodiversity risks in mountain regions. Our results highlight the urgency of mitigating climate change and managing land use to preserve the unique biodiversity of these areas.
16 Dec 2024Submitted to Ecography
19 Dec 2024Submission Checks Completed
19 Dec 2024Assigned to Editor
19 Dec 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
20 Dec 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned