The construction industry is regarded as a key field for energy conservation and emission reduction. Consequently, a detailed investigation of the potential for emission reduction in China’s assembly buildings and the anticipated trajectory of their development is of significant practical importance for the future of the country. In light of the aforementioned background, a carbon emission dynamic model has been constructed, comprising six scenarios designed to simulate and evaluate the carbon emissions of China’s assembly buildings, thereby exploring their potential for emission reduction. It is anticipated that China’s assembly building market share will reach 40.8% by 2035, which is of significant relevance to the future development of the country. It is anticipated that the complete replacement of the traditional building model with an assembled building will result in a reduction of carbon emissions by up to 12,929,700 tons by 2035. The data not only demonstrates the significant potential of assembled buildings in terms of energy saving and emission reduction, but also indicates the trajectory of future development within the construction industry.