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A causal inference framework for climate change attribution in ecology
  • +2
  • Joan Dudney,
  • Laura Dee,
  • Robert Heilmayr,
  • Jarrett Byrnes,
  • Katherine Siegel
Joan Dudney
University of California Santa Barbara

Corresponding Author:dudney@ucsb.edu

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Laura Dee
University of Colorado Boulder
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Robert Heilmayr
University of California Santa Barbara
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Jarrett Byrnes
University of Massachusetts Boston
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Katherine Siegel
University of Toronto
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Abstract

As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on ecological systems, experimental results are difficult to generalize to real-world scenarios. To better capture realized impacts, ecologists can use observational data. Disentangling cause and effect using observational data, however, requires careful research design. Here we describe advances in causal inference that can improve climate change attribution in observational settings. Our framework includes five steps: 1) describe the theoretical foundation, 2) choose appropriate observational data sets, 3) design a causal inference analysis, 4) estimate a counterfactual scenario, and 5) evaluate assumptions and results using robustness checks. We then demonstrate this framework using a case study focused on detecting climate change impacts on whitebark pine growth in California’s Sierra Nevada. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and frontiers in ecological climate change attribution. Our aim is to provide an accessible foundation for applying observational causal inference to climate change attribution in ecology.
06 Dec 2024Submitted to Ecology Letters
06 Dec 2024Submission Checks Completed
06 Dec 2024Assigned to Editor
06 Dec 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
18 Dec 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned