Abstract
As climate change increasingly affects biodiversity and ecosystem
services, a key challenge in ecology is accurate attribution of these
impacts. Though experimental studies have greatly advanced our
understanding of climate change impacts on ecological systems,
experimental results are difficult to generalize to real-world
scenarios. To better capture realized impacts, ecologists can use
observational data. Disentangling cause and effect using observational
data, however, requires careful research design. Here we describe
advances in causal inference that can improve climate change attribution
in observational settings. Our framework includes five steps: 1)
describe the theoretical foundation, 2) choose appropriate observational
data sets, 3) design a causal inference analysis, 4) estimate a
counterfactual scenario, and 5) evaluate assumptions and results using
robustness checks. We then demonstrate this framework using a case study
focused on detecting climate change impacts on whitebark pine growth in
California’s Sierra Nevada. We conclude with a discussion of challenges
and frontiers in ecological climate change attribution. Our aim is to
provide an accessible foundation for applying observational causal
inference to climate change attribution in ecology.