Upward and northwest range shifts for endemic Lamiaceae medicinal herbs
in the Third Pole
Abstract
In response to climate change, alpine plants are migrating to higher
altitudes and latitudes to track suitable habitats. In mountainous
systems, plants may be trapped in limited areas at summits and unable to
migrate further, a phenomenon termed ”nowhere to go.” To predict the
responses to climate change of alpine plants in the Third Pole, the
region with the highest flora, we used 4 endemic Lamiaceae alpine herbs
as a model based on comprehensive data curation in the study area of the
Third Pole (740 occurrence records) and 26 environmental variables using
the Biomod2 ensemble model. The main results showed that the
temperature–related climate factors dominate the shaping of species
distribution and drive the range migration, in the future, Lamiaceae
species are projected to migrate upwards and northward, and the Tibet
Plateau (TP) is anticipated to become a migration destination for four
Lamiaceae species, while the distribution of these species in the
Hengduan Mountains is expected to decline significantly, indicating the
stable and suitable areas at the summits of the Himalaya–Hengduan
Mountains region (HHM) is crucial for ensuring the survival of alpine
species amidst climate change. Our findings will not only help to
improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on alpine
plants in the Third Pole, but will also provide a case study of ENM
using a similar approach.