Locational Drivers of Non-Cultivated Land Use in Heterogeneous
Topographies: A Case Study of Sichuan Basin, China
Abstract
Food security remains a pressing concern for nations worldwide. A
significant challenge arises from the non-cultivated use (NCU) of
previously cultivated land, potentially reducing food production
capacity. This study investigates the driving forces behind NCU in
China’s Sichuan Basin, a crucial agricultural zone. A sliding window
method was employed to extract the NCU patches between 1991-2018,
furthermore, the driving effects and pattern of NCU was explored by
conducting multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model
across different regions. Our research reveals a critical finding: (1)
The cumulative NCU area in the Sichuan Basin grew continuously from 1991
to 2018, with a notable net increase after 2005, peaking in 2015 before
declining. This phenomenon expanded from peripheral mountainous areas to
the basin interior and from urban centers to outskirts, showing a recent
leapfrog-like aggregation trend. (2) The Heterogeneous impacts of
locational factors across different regions were revealed: in
mountainous areas, improvements in transportation and market
accessibility would slow down NCU, whereas in plain areas, the opposite
would be true. These findings highlight the need for differentiated
policy measures to address NCU effectively, including increasing
infrastructure investment and market capacity in mountainous areas to
reduce transportation costs and incentivize land protection, while
providing grain subsidies, technical support, and farm machinery rentals
in plain areas to encourage sustainable land use and organizing the
uniform planting of advantageous crops like fruits and tea to increase
efficiency. By elucidating the spatial heterogeneity of NCU drivers,
this study provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to
optimize land-use strategies and ensure long-term food security.