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Molecular footprints of Quaternary climate fluctuations in the circumpolar tundra shrub dwarf birch
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  • Maria Dance,
  • Erin Saupe,
  • James Borrell,
  • Pernille Bronken Eidesen,
  • Daniel Ackerman,
  • Jakob Assmann,
  • Bruce Forbes,
  • Marina Gurskaya,
  • Toke Høye,
  • Stein Karlsen,
  • Timo Kumpula,
  • Mariusz Lamentowicz,
  • Michael Loranty,
  • Isla Myers-Smith,
  • Janet Prevéy,
  • Christian Rixen,
  • Gabriela Schaepman-Strub,
  • Michał Słowiński,
  • Sandra Słowińska,
  • Aleksandr Sokolov,
  • James Speed,
  • Marcus Spiegel,
  • Martin Wilmking,
  • Marc Macias-Fauria
Maria Dance
University of Oxford School of Geography and the Environment, Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

Corresponding Author:md2051@cam.ac.uk

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Erin Saupe
University of Oxford Department of Earth Sciences
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James Borrell
Royal Botanic Gardens Kew
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Pernille Bronken Eidesen
University Centre in Svalbard Department of Arctic Biology, Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
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Daniel Ackerman
University of Minnesota Department of Ecology Evolution and Behavior
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Jakob Assmann
The University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences, Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Bruce Forbes
University of Lapland Arctic Centre
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Marina Gurskaya
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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Toke Høye
Aarhus University Department of Ecoscience
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Stein Karlsen
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS
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Timo Kumpula
University of Eastern Finland Department of Geographical and Historical Studies
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Mariusz Lamentowicz
Uniwersytet im Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
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Michael Loranty
Colgate University
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Isla Myers-Smith
The University of Edinburgh School of GeoSciences, Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
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Janet Prevéy
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Mountain Ecosystems Davos, CH
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Christian Rixen
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF
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Gabriela Schaepman-Strub
University of Zurich Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies
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Michał Słowiński
Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences
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Sandra Słowińska
Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization Polish Academy of Sciences
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Aleksandr Sokolov
Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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James Speed
Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of Natural History
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Marcus Spiegel
University of Oxford School of Geography and the Environment
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Martin Wilmking
University Greifswald Institute of Botany and Landscape Ecology
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Marc Macias-Fauria
University of Oxford School of Geography and the Environment, Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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Abstract

The Arctic tundra biome is undergoing rapid shrub expansion (“shrubification”) in response to anthropogenic climate change. During the previous ~2.6 million years, glacial cycles caused substantial shifts in Arctic vegetation, leading to changes in species’ distributions, abundance, and connectivity, which have left lasting impacts on the genetic structure of modern populations. Examining how shrubs responded to past climate change using genetic data can inform the ecological and evolutionary consequences of shrub expansion today. Here we test scenarios of Quaternary population history of dwarf birch species (Betula nana L. and Betula Glandulosa Michx.) using SNP markers obtained from RAD sequencing and approximate Bayesian computation. We compare the timings of population events with ice sheet reconstructions and other paleoenvironmental information to untangle the impacts of alternating cold and warm periods on the phylogeography of dwarf birch. Our best supported model suggested that the species diverged in the Mid-Pleistocene Transition as glaciations intensified, and ice sheets expanded. We found support for a complex history of inter- and intraspecific divergences and gene flow, with secondary contact occurring during periods of both expanding and retreating ice sheets. Our spatiotemporal analysis suggests that the modern genetic structure of dwarf birch was shaped by transitions in climate between glacials and interglacials, with ice sheets acting alternatively as a barrier or an enabler of population mixing. Tundra shrubs may have had more nuanced responses to past climatic changes than phylogeographic analyses have often suggested, with implications for future eco-evolutionary responses to anthropogenic climate change.
23 Nov 2024Submitted to Molecular Ecology
25 Nov 2024Submission Checks Completed
25 Nov 2024Assigned to Editor
25 Nov 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
04 Dec 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned