Victoria Culshaw

and 2 more

A conceptual and mechanistic approach for bridging the fields of macroecology and historical biogeography has been a long-term aim in evolutionary biology. Such a bridge could increase understanding on the processes governing the spatial and temporal generation of biodiversity distribution patterns. This aim has been approached by evolutionary biogeographic inferential statistical models, which incorporate the contribution of environmental factors as scaling parameters. Here, we describe a spatially-explicit, forward-time, numerical (“automat”) model. Our model sets a series of rules to govern speciation, extinction, and dispersal of lineages within an environmentally heterogeneous, two-dimensional landscape. Unlike some previous approaches, niche conservatism is assumed but the model allows environmental conditions to vary spatially and temporally, by simulating over time-series of palaeoclimate data. Speciation is governed by a global speciation rate, whereas the background extinction rate depends on abiotic (palaeoenvironmental conditions) and biotic (species density) factors, hence giving a local background extinction rate. Furthermore, we propose a mechanistic approach in which species are linked through evolutionary history event from a single evolutionary origin. We set different rules to generate the resulting phylogenies to test different factors (time, environment) that govern the inheritance of range distributions. Dispersal follows a Poisson kernel model, with higher probability of migration to contiguous areas and rarer long-distance movements to distant areas. We present ways in which temporal dispersal barriers could modify the resultant spatial patterns. Model parameterisation is based on comparison of simulated spatial patterns with empirical patterns with statistic dependent variables, such as the species’ landscape spatial distribution, species’ geographic range size and location, and the shape of resultant phylogenies. Finally, we propose that our model could be used to evaluate the role played by niche conservatism, ecological vicariance and climatic-driven extinction in the generation of disjunct continental patterns, such as the Rand Flora pattern.