Calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of ecological models
-- a review
Abstract
Ecologists increasingly use complex models to predict and understand
ecological systems and their responses to external drivers or
anthropogenic pressures. A persistent challenge in this context is
quantifying and reducing uncertainty in model inputs, parameters and
structure, and understanding their implications for model predictions.
Three major methodological fields have emerged in this context:
sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and model calibration. These
three methods are a integral part of any modelling or forecasting
process, but the corresponding literature is often scattered, and
distinct terminology and definitions are used in different
methodological and scientific contexts. Here, we review and connect
these three fields and discuss best practices for their practical
implementation with a focus on complex ecological models. We classify
relevant types of uncertainty, discuss the complementary roles of
sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, give an overview of available
calibration methods, and emphasise the importance of effective
communication of uncertainty. We conclude that using state-of-the-art
methods for understanding model behaviour as well as consistently
accounting for all uncertainties is essential for correctly
understanding model predictions and thus forms the basis for a
responsible use of models in ecological decision making.