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Calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of ecological models -- a review
  • Anne-Kathleen Malchow,
  • Florian Hartig
Anne-Kathleen Malchow
University of Regensburg
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Florian Hartig
University of Regensburg

Corresponding Author:florian.hartig@biologie.uni-regensburg.de

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Abstract

Ecologists increasingly use complex models to predict and understand ecological systems and their responses to external drivers or anthropogenic pressures. A persistent challenge in this context is quantifying and reducing uncertainty in model inputs, parameters and structure, and understanding their implications for model predictions. Three major methodological fields have emerged in this context: sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and model calibration. These three methods are a integral part of any modelling or forecasting process, but the corresponding literature is often scattered, and distinct terminology and definitions are used in different methodological and scientific contexts. Here, we review and connect these three fields and discuss best practices for their practical implementation with a focus on complex ecological models. We classify relevant types of uncertainty, discuss the complementary roles of sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, give an overview of available calibration methods, and emphasise the importance of effective communication of uncertainty. We conclude that using state-of-the-art methods for understanding model behaviour as well as consistently accounting for all uncertainties is essential for correctly understanding model predictions and thus forms the basis for a responsible use of models in ecological decision making.