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\title{Stochastic Optimization of Integrated Electricity-heat-gas Energy System
Considering Uncertainty of Indirect Carbon Emission Intensity}



\author[1]{Ning Qi}%
\author[1]{Juan Su}%
\affil[1]{China Agricultural University}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{April 25, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
The inherent intermittency and fluctuation of renewable energy
generation can lead to uncertainty in electricity carbon emission
intensity. This uncertainty poses challenges to the low-carbon
scheduling of integrated energy systems and impacts the economic
benefits of system operation. To this end, this paper proposes an
optimization model for integrated electricity-heat-gas energy system
operation considering uncertain indirect carbon emission intensity.
First, a regional integrated electricity-heat-gas energy system model
considering the tiered carbon trading mechanism is formulated. Then,
polyhedral uncertainty sets are introduced to analyze and qualify the
uncertainties in renewable energy and indirect carbon emission
intensity. Finally, a stochastic optimization method is introduced to
deal with the uncertainty in the integrated energy scheduling model.
Extensive case studies are conducted to verify the competence of the
proposed models in enhancing the environmentally friendly and economic
benefits of integrated energy systems.%
\end{abstract}%



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