Abstract

not-yet-known not-yet-known not-yet-known unknown The spatiotemporal differences between ecosystem services (ES) and human activities pose significant challenges to the coordinated development of human-earth systems, particularly in China’s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Inner Mongolia (JJJM) region. However, a clear understanding of the changing relationship between the coupling and coordination of ES and human activities remains lacking. This study uses an adjusted ecosystem services matrix to calculate ES supply, demand, and balance, and develops a human activity intensity index (HAII) based on factors like nighttime light and grazing intensity. Then, methods such as Moran’s I and the Coupling Coordination Degree framework are employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution, coupling coordination relationship of ES supply, demand, balance, and HAII at regional, provincial, and grid scales between 2000 and 2020. The result reveals that over the past 20 years, ES supply in the region has increased, while ES balance first increased and then decreased. Concurrently, HAII has shown a continuous upward trend, indicating that the intensification of human activities may have contributed to the decline in ES balance. A bivariate local Moran’s I test result show that there is indeed a significant trade-off (-0.23) between ES balance and human activity intensity. Coupling coordination analysis shows over 86% of the region has a coordination degree below 0.7, indicating Barely Balanced Development. The coordination degree in the JJJM region is declining, with Tianjin seeing the most significant drop. Further study indicates that forests and grasslands contribute positively to ecosystem balance, accounting for over 88% of the cumulative contribution. Therefore, in the future development of regional space, timely replenishment of forest and grassland is the only way to maintain the harmony of human-earth systems. This study deepens the understanding of the relationship between ecosystem service balance and human socioeconomic activities and provides valuable insights for ecological compensation policies in the context of urban-rural integration.