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Reducing Inequities in the Future Air Pollution Health Burden Over Europe
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  • Connor Joseph Clayton,
  • Steven T Turnock,
  • Daniel R Marsh,
  • Ailish M Graham,
  • Carly Lauren Serena Reddington,
  • Karn Vohra,
  • James B McQuaid
Connor Joseph Clayton
University of Leeds

Corresponding Author:eecjc@leeds.ac.uk

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Steven T Turnock
Met Office Hadley Centre
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Daniel R Marsh
University of Leeds
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Ailish M Graham
University of Leeds
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Carly Lauren Serena Reddington
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
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Karn Vohra
University College London
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James B McQuaid
University of Leeds
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Abstract

The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, with air quality co-benefits anticipated from climate change mitigation. Few studies try to model these co-benefits at a regional scale and even fewer consider health inequalities in their analyses.
 
We analyse the health impacts across Western and Central Europe from exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface level ozone (O3) in 2014 and in 2050 using three scenarios with different levels of climate change mitigation, using a high-resolution atmospheric chemistry model to simulate future air quality. We use recent health functions to estimate mortality related to the aforementioned pollutants. We also analyse the relationship between air quality mortality rate per 100,000 people and Human Development Index to establish if reductions in air quality mortality are achieved equitably.
 
We find that air quality-related mortality (PM2.5 + O3 mortality) will only reduce in the future following a high-mitigation scenario (54%). It could increase by 7.5\% following a medium-mitigation scenario and by 8.3% following a weak mitigation scenario. The differences are driven by larger reductions in PM2.5-related mortality and a small reduction in O3-related mortality following the sustainable scenario, whereas for the other scenarios, smaller improvements in PM2.5-related mortality are masked by worsening O$_3$-related mortality.
 
We find that less developed regions of European countries have higher mortality rates from PM2.5 and O3 exposure in the present day, but that this inequity is reduced following greater climate change mitigation.