Climate change impacts on compound renewable energy droughts under
evolving infrastructure in the Western United States
Abstract
As variable renewable energy resources become a larger part of the
generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact
of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable
renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In a future decarbonized or low-carbon
grid, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their
potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its
kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the
Western U.S. across a range of climate change and future infrastructure
scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity will increase
significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in
wind and solar generation needed to meet decarbonization goals. Climate
change is expected to increase the variability of energy drought
severity, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for
mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of
compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid
simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns
depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in
the future with the combined effect of climate change and infrastructure
growth, although in the fall we observe a climate change-induced shift
toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.