Modeling the Dynamics of Disease Transmission in Insect Populations: The
Role of Infection Probability, Population Size, and Isolation Behavior
Abstract
Entomopathogenic fungi can cause infectious diseases within host insect
populations, while insects may counteract disease transmission through
the strategy of isolating infected individuals. This study develops a
system of differential equations to model the temporal dynamics of
susceptible and infected individuals, as well as the concentration of
fungal spores in the environment, to investigate the complex dynamics of
disease transmission. The study focuses on three critical parameters:
infection probability, population size, and isolation rate. The results
show that infection probability is a key determinant of disease spread;
as infection probability increases, the basic reproduction number (R_0)
rises, potentially leading to periodic oscillations in disease
incidence, highlighting the nonlinear response of disease transmission
to changes in virulence. This underscores the importance of managing
environmental factors such as temperature and humidity, which influence
infection probability, to control disease spread. Furthermore, the
analysis reveals that larger populations, due to higher contact
frequency, exhibit more pronounced and persistent disease dynamics,
suggesting that population density control is an effective strategy for
managing disease outbreaks. The study also identifies isolation behavior
as crucial for disease control, where moderate increases in isolation
rates can lead to complete eradication under certain conditions. The
timing of spore production relative to host death is also identified as
a key variable affecting the efficacy of isolation. In conclusion, this
study elucidates the complex interplay between infection probability,
population size, and isolation behavior, providing a theoretical basis
for optimizing biological control strategies using entomopathogenic
fungi and managing high-density insect populations.