not-yet-known not-yet-known not-yet-known unknown Mangrove ecosystems are among the most effective natural environments for carbon fixation and sequestration, playing a critical role in coastal protection, water quality maintenance, and providing habitats for marine life, which are essential for environmental conservation and climate regulation. This study utilized Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to map the distribution of mangroves along the coast of Guangdong Province, China, where the existing area was found to be 110.28 km². Subsequently, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to predict potential mangrove distribution areas, estimated at 1756 km². By analyzing both current and potential distribution maps, the carbon sequestration of the coastal mangroves in Guangdong were estimated at 131.65 ± 62.63 Mg C yr⁻¹ and 1958.41 ± 921.61 Mg C yr⁻¹, respectively. Environmental variables, soil physical properties, topographical data, marine variables, and land type data were used in the MaxEnt model to identify the key factors limiting mangrove distribution. The study found that the primary constraints on the potential distribution of mangroves along the Guangdong coast were the precipitation of the driest month (bio14) and the annual temperature range (bio7). Although the carbon sequestration capacity of Guangdong’s coastal mangroves is below the global average, the extensive potential distribution area suggests that strategic ecological restoration could significantly enhance regional carbon sequestration capacity while providing a wealth of ecosystem services and mutual benefits for the coastal area.